What will my probability be that these ocean regions have been kept cool by sulfur emissions from ships until 2020? | Manifold

What will my probability be that these ocean regions have been kept cool by sulfur emissions from ships until 2020?

Basic

5

Ṁ68

2028

66%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Resolves to my probability on Dec 31, 2027. I don't promise to do much research, but I might.

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I might be writing my M.A. thesis on marine climates & biogeography in some of the affected regions, so if I find anything particularly relevant, I'll probably post it here.

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Will more than 20% of all transoceanic freight/shipping be routed through the Arctic before 2050?

Will global CO2 emissions decrease in 2028?

Can international shipping achieve the IMO target of 20% reduction of GHG emissions compared to 2008?

Will the Gulf Stream system (Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation) collapse before end of 2030?

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