Evaluated vs. my guess about the counterfactual world where I don't use Manifold Markets that often. If I don't use Manifold Markets for more than 15 hours, this market will resolve N/A.
Dec 25, 1:33pm: At the end of 2024, if I use Manifold Markets for more than 15 hours, will I think that using Manifold Markets over the last year has been net-positive or net-negative? → At the end of 2024, if I use Manifold Markets for more than 15 hours, will I think that using Manifold Markets over the last year has been net-positive or net-negative? (subsidized 550M)
Dec 25, 1:34pm: At the end of 2024, if I use Manifold Markets for more than 15 hours, will I think that using Manifold Markets over the last year has been net-positive or net-negative? (subsidized 550M) → At the end of 2023, if I use Manifold Markets for more than 15 hours, will I think that using Manifold Markets over the last year has been net-positive or net-negative? (subsidized 550M)
net-positive = YES
net-negative = NO
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@NoaNabeshima are you currently thinking the good outweighs the bad, or is it more of an unhealthy addiction?
Ways it could be good
- It gives me tighter feedback loops for figuring out what’s real
- It makes it easy to do something I care ab: getting feedback ab the world
- It prompts me to think deeply ab the future, which is generally helpful
- I have fun trading on my beliefs and getting a sense of what people I know believe
- I can elicit other people’s beliefs by making markets on things I want to get information about.
Ways it could be bad
- I get addicted to it, it seems fun but somehow dissatisfying like video games sometimes are (I have this a little already)
- lots of markets I bet in don't resolve appropriately for whatever reason
- Gamelike mechanics leads me to doing things I don't on reflection endorse and this is a lot of how I spend my time
+ EG because most markets aren't very liquid, every time you bet you have a profit on the market for a while, which can lead to over-betting
+ Because markets are illiquid you as an individual can control a market price in your favor (at least on paper), so you might want to keep a market at a particular percentage so that your portfolio looks good (to yourself!)
+ Maybe I spend more time betting than I want to
- If most of the markets are miscalibrated but take a while to resolve, it might nudge me to have wrong consensus beliefs
- If most of the markets are resolved too subjectively in a way that incorporates the market creator's beliefs it can nudge me to have wrong consensus beliefs