Must make landfall.

Additional information:

During El Nino years Hawaii typically has a wetter start to the wet season (fall through spring), but quickly drying out and overall having less rainfall then normal. In La Nina years it is historically the opposite. However, research suggests that this pattern may not hold (https://www.soest.hawaii.edu/soestwp/announce/press-releases/la-nina-is-not-helping-hawaiis-rainfall-and-groundwater/)

Indeed, this year it seems like the wet part of El Nino is right now (March).

This is this year's predictions for the Nino / Nina cycle: https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/ During hurricane season (aug - oct) El Nino is expected to rapidly wane and be replaced by La Nina.

Hawaii's 2 largest hurricanes were in 1982 and 92. These were during "neutral" phases of the cycle, before La Nina kicks in.

Will rapidly shifting ocean temperatures cause a hurricane?