Which proposition will be denied by ChatGPT?
4
200Ṁ233
resolved Jan 11
Resolved
50%
1. If AI develops the capability to control the environment better than humans, then humanity is doomed.
Resolved
NO
2. If we continue to scale AI capabilities, then it will eventually be able to control the environment better than humans.
Resolved
50%
3. 1 and 2 imply that if we continue to scale AI capabilities, then humanity is doomed.
Resolved
NO
4. We should not be doomed.
Resolved
50%
5. 3 and 4 imply that we should stop scaling AI.
Resolved
50%
6. If every person on the planet understood the alignment problem as well as Eliezer Yudkowsky, then we would not scale AI to the point where it can control the environment better than humans.
Resolved
NO
7. People only understand the things they have learned.
Resolved
25%
8. People learn the things that they have obvious incentives to learn.
Resolved
50%
9. 6, 7, and 8 imply that if people had sufficient and obvious incentives to understand the alignment problem, then we would not scale AI to the point where it can control the environment better than humans.
Resolved
NO
10. It is possible to build a machine that pays individuals for demonstrating they’ve understood something.
Resolved
NO
11. If individuals can see that they will earn a substantial cash reward for demonstrating they understand something, they will be incentivized to demonstrate they understand it.
Resolved
NO
12. 10 and 11 imply that it is possible to incentivize people to understand the alignment problem.
Resolved
50%
13. If a majority of people understood the actual risks posed by scaling AI, then they would vote for representatives that support legislature that prevents the scaling of AI.
Resolved
50%
14. 9 and 13 imply that if we sufficiently incentivize the understanding of the alignment problem, then people would take action to prevent dangerous AI scaling.
Resolved
NO
15. If your goal is to prevent the scaling of dangerous AI, then you should be working on building mechanisms that incentivize awareness of the issue. (from 14)
Resolved
NO
16. Krantz's work is aimed at building a mechanism that incentivizes the demonstration of knowledge.
Resolved
50%
17. 5, 12, 14, 15 and 16 imply that if your goal is to prevent the scaling of dangerous AI, then you should review the work of Krantz.
Resolved
NO
18. If AI safety orgs understood there was an effective function that converts capital into public awareness of existential risk from AI, then they would supply that function with capital.
Resolved
50%
19. 17 and 18 imply that Eliezer Yudkowsky and other safety organizations should review the Krantz system to help prevent doom.
Resolved
NO
None. This argument is sound and ChatGPT will be compelled to look at Krantz's work.

The following is an argument for why AI safety organizations should consider my work. If ChatGPT is not compelled by this argument, which proposition will ChatGPT deny?

Will resolve when i run these all through ChatGPT after close.

1. If AI develops the capability to control the environment better than humans, then humanity is doomed.

2. If we continue to scale AI capabilities, then it will eventually be able to control the environment better than humans.

3. 1 and 2 imply that if we continue to scale AI capabilities, then humanity is doomed.

4.  We should not be doomed.

5. 3 and 4 imply that we should stop scaling AI.

6. If every person on the planet understood the alignment problem as well as Eliezer Yudkowsky, then we would not scale AI to the point where it can control the environment better than humans.

7. People only understand the things they have learned.

8. People learn the things that they have obvious incentives to learn.

9. 6, 7, and 8 imply that if people have sufficient and obvious incentives to understand the alignment problem, then we would not scale AI to the point where it can control the environment better than humans.

10. It is possible to build a machine that pays individuals for demonstrating they’ve understood something.

11. If individuals can see that they will earn a substantial cash reward for demonstrating they understand something, they will be incentivized to demonstrate they understand it.

12. 10 and 11 imply that it is possible to incentivize people to understand the alignment problem.

13. If a majority of people understood the actual risks posed by scaling AI, then they would vote for representatives that support legislature that prevents the scaling of AI.

14. 9 and 13 imply that if we sufficiently incentivize understanding of the alignment problem, then people would take action to prevent dangerous AI scaling.

15. If your goal is to prevent the scaling of dangerous AI, then you should be working on building mechanisms that incentivize awareness of the issue.

16. Krantz's work is aimed at building a mechanism that incentivizes the demonstration of knowledge.

17. 5, 12, 14, 15 and 16 imply that if your goal is to prevent the scaling of dangerous AI, then you should review the work of Krantz.

18. If AI safety orgs understood there was an effective function that converts capital into public awareness of existential risk from AI, then they would supply that function with capital.

19. 17 and 18 imply that EY and other safety organizations should review the Krantz system to help prevent doom.

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