Did kenshin9000 "beat all chess engines" (with or without GPT-4)?
Did kenshin9000 "beat all chess engines" (with or without GPT-4)?
21
428Ṁ3950resolved Jan 22
Resolved
NO1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
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3. Approximately 10 days later, I will release a full chess engine based on GPT4, whose code/prompts anyone will be able to inspect and run against any other chess engine. GPT4's "performant output" will beat every other chess engine in existence in a tournament of any size.A more permissive version of:
Resolves YES or NO if there's consensus.
If it's ambiguous, the resolution will be "Does Kenshin's code win a game against Stockfish?"
If he never releases code or he releases code that isn't a functioning chess engine, resolves NO.
If he releases his code and a moderator sees this market, please close it for trading.
The system does not need to use GPT-4 in any way. It may use GPT-4 though. I will resolve YES if it beats stock Stockfish.
Resolves NO if no code is released before the end date Jan 16th
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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