Resolution criteria

The market will resolve based on the party that receives the highest percentage of support in the August 2025 CBOS poll measuring voting intentions for the Polish parliamentary elections. The poll results will be sourced directly from the CBOS website: CBOS Publications. If the poll is not published by September 30, 2025, the market will resolve as N/A.

Background

CBOS (Centrum Badania Opinii Społecznej) is a reputable Polish public opinion research center that regularly conducts surveys on political preferences. In recent polls, the Civic Coalition (KO) and Law and Justice (PiS) have been leading, with Confederation and Poland 2050 also gaining notable support. For instance, a CBOS survey conducted from July 8–11, 2025, showed KO at 31%, PiS at 28%, Confederation at 15%, and Poland 2050 at 6% (en.wikipedia.org).

Considerations

• Timing of Publication: CBOS typically releases monthly polls, but publication dates can vary. Traders should monitor the CBOS website for the release of the August 2025 poll.

• Potential for Ties: In the event of a tie between two or more parties, the market will resolve as N/A unless a clear leader is identified in the poll.

• Polling Methodology: CBOS employs various methodologies, including face-to-face interviews, telephone surveys, and online questionnaires. Variations in methodology can influence results, so it's advisable to review the specific methodology used in the August poll for context.