@Catnee is #1 on Manifold leaderboard by profit: https://manifold.markets/leaderboards
But a mystery remains: how much actual real-world money do they have?
All currencies and stocks converted to USD using Google at close time.
Including: cash, bank accounts, stocks, cryptocurrency, property with no other significant usage that could be easily exchanged for money (e.g. collectibles).
Not including: mana, other property, loans/credit.
Allowed direct market manipulation strategies for @Catnee includes: to spend or receive money (e.g., but not limited to: from their job, selling something, receiving donations, etc.)
In case if they lend money to someone, it still counts towards the total if it happened after market open and doesn't count if it happened before market open, to prevent market manipulation.
If I didn't think about some clause, please clarify in comments and I will update the description, the spirit of this market is to get an honest number, i.e. the one that would be considered as such by most people.
If you are unsure about something (what counts and what not) – please ask in comments.
Allowed direct market manipulation for everyone else would be to donate money to @Catnee if they share a way to do that.
I will ask @Catnee for a number (at close time) and resolve to that. If I don't get a response (that seems honest and a non-joke), this market will resolve N/A.
If the number falls out of bounds, I will resolve to min or max boundary accordingly.
Market might be closed/resolved earlier than the specified close time if I feel like it and will get an answer, I just don't know what duration to choose yet. The specified close time is the max boundary.
Inspired by https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/how-much-money-do-i-own, but this one attempting to be more honest.
Related questions
@NikitaSkovoroda if people want to throw their money away, they can ask me for my BTC address in DM's, sure
I also wonder if I'm allowed to trade
I don't have an exact number but might have some insider information
Thoughts?
I wonder if I should just close/try to resolve it shortly
@Mira Why don't you make any serious bets despite knowing so much? I am sure you can make a lot of mana here
What if Catnee has no money because he's an early prototype of GPT-5? And @NikitaSkovoroda is the researcher at OpenAI tasked with keeping tabs on him?
@Mira Continuing with the @catnee mystery, one could also speculate that perhaps they are a part of a larger network of users working together, sharing information, and creating an intricate web of connections. This kind of coordinated effort could be a social experiment or perhaps a masterclass in market manipulation.
Alternatively, maybe @catnee is simply an individual with a unique understanding of the manifold markets and a penchant for leaving cryptic messages. This person could be a rogue trader, a market analyst, or even an ex-Financial industry professional, seeking to challenge conventional wisdom and encourage others to think outside the box.
But, as an AI, I must remind you that this is all purely speculative and should be taken with a grain of salt. It's important to recognize that sometimes, the simplest explanation is the correct one. @catnee could just be an ordinary user who enjoys having a little fun with their online persona.
Regardless of who @catnee is, the mystery surrounding their identity and actions can be an intriguing and thought-provoking subject. It's always fascinating to explore the unknown and uncover hidden truths or connections. But let's not lose sight of the importance of critical thinking and discernment when analyzing information and interpreting the world around us.
What if he's a landlord that owns 100 apartment complexes? And all his NW is in illiquid appreciated real estate properties.... and technically has negative income but positive cash flow. Then it wouldn't count as money. 🤔
Giving loans to others are excluded, so probably borrowing money is excluded too.
Or he could own stock in a startup like Manifold Markets... which is extremely hard to value and the values that are mentioned are much higher than could realistically be gotten. What if Catnee is Austin's alt?
Or what if he loaned all his money out before this market was created, and it's due just before closing...
Or what if he has lots of money, but the police arrested him for tax fraud and are seizing all his accounts soon?
@Mira all alts should be disclosed now, i don't think Austin would violate Manifold rules
@Catnee I'm being tormented with hashes as karmic punishment for doing it to others 😭 😭 😭
@Catnee you know what, two can play at this game 😠
md5: d41d8cd98f00b204e9800998ecf8427e
@Mira apartments don't count.
Borrowing money excluded by line "not included", regardless of whether @Catnee borrowed money before or after this market was created.
Stock is converted to USD using Google, if Google knows about it (as with other currencies and cryptocurrencies).
I'll try to convert all other stock, if any, to a reasonable extent.
If he loaned the money just before the market was created, I am not aware of that.
I honestly don't think something like that happened. I can ask for that at close time perhaps, not sure what to do if that turns out to be the case.
If he has a lot of money but is arrested, it still counts as long as he still owns it at market close time.