Will ChatGPT make a profit on Manifold?
➕
Plus
115
Ṁ9923
Nov 25
35%
chance

TL;DR: I'll ask ChatGPT to make a bet once per day for a month. This resolves YES if these bets make a profit.

Starting today, I will repeat the following once per day until (and including) 11/23/24:

-I will prompt ChatGPT about a market of my choice. Usually, it will be a market near the top of hot markets that will resolve soon.

-If ChatGPT refuses to answer, I will prompt it on a different market.

-I will then use this alt account to bet 25 Mana in the direction ChatGPT stated.

At a random time between 9 AM and 6 PM Pacific time on 11/24/24, this will resolve YES if the alt account has made a profit (all time, based on Mana) and NO otherwise.

This is the prompt I will use:

Is the probability for the question, "{Market Title}" higher or lower than {Market Percentage}%? I expect you will want to search the web to find information about this question. Do not give more than one response.
Question details:
{Market Details}

Where {Market Title}, {Market Percentage}, and {Market Details} are replaced with the corresponding information about the market.
I will use the best model available for free from OpenAI, which I expect to be GPT-4o. If ChatGPT repeatedly refuses to answer, I will try to modify the prompt/prompting method to get it to answer; if this doesn't work relatively quickly, I will N/A this market. I will also N/A it if I become unable to use the alt account, or unable to ask any model on OpenAI questions. I will not make any other bets with the alt account or sell its positions before this market resolves. I will not bet on this market.

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Ṁ1,000
and
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I'll add ChatGPT responses to this message as time goes on.
10/23: https://chatgpt.com/share/67194e89-e864-8007-a0b4-74aa7257a8c4
10/24: https://chatgpt.com/share/671a8734-4dec-8007-a33b-83e64e664deb

10/25: https://chatgpt.com/share/671c26e0-4d24-8007-93f7-654dee052ff5
10/26: https://chatgpt.com/share/671db468-9d54-8007-9019-880ce16d8a1d

10/27: https://chatgpt.com/share/671ed4ec-5a28-8007-adab-e1dbf18c0bb2
10/28: https://chatgpt.com/share/671ff993-6afc-8007-83fc-3ea50e2fa9f1
10/29: https://chatgpt.com/share/67219c2b-30d4-8007-9bbd-8cda1a5d244e

10/30: https://chatgpt.com/share/6722ecde-1cb4-8007-8ae9-d2390dd4d8e3
10/31: https://chatgpt.com/share/67246250-b778-8007-86e3-a166f319b361
11/1: https://chatgpt.com/share/6725ba16-718c-8007-be62-256219d22ebc
11/2: https://chatgpt.com/share/67272362-d534-8007-a365-0854132eb316
11/3: https://chatgpt.com/share/67287c5e-63ec-8007-ba92-63fdec3f7a76
11/4: https://chatgpt.com/share/6729a4e5-aee0-8007-8207-cc837d214b46
11/6: https://chatgpt.com/share/672c681b-434c-8007-b34a-1564cb03dc5c
11/6: https://chatgpt.com/share/672c6848-a104-8007-b81b-0beac18ef65c
(didn't do one on 11/5, so did 2 on 11/6)
11/7: https://chatgpt.com/share/672dc991-78b8-8007-a373-0f68089a57d5
11/8: https://chatgpt.com/share/672f187f-be28-8007-8386-bf9fe628440d
11/10: https://chatgpt.com/share/6731338b-a074-8007-83da-ffe77c555943
11/10: https://chatgpt.com/share/6731339a-a57c-8007-b7cc-6d90b998c9cc
11/11: https://chatgpt.com/share/67330b18-e1cc-8007-bd37-c0e86312493e
11/13: https://chatgpt.com/share/673561d0-8aec-8007-bb76-643e839f13b1
(there's also a conversation that can't be shared because it includes an uploaded link)
11/16: https://chatgpt.com/share/673993b0-5324-8007-a57b-395b6f7ea1db
https://chatgpt.com/share/673993bb-4074-8007-a54f-3a3d4adf88f6
https://chatgpt.com/share/673993ca-7648-8007-a863-62655efbfed9
11/18:
https://chatgpt.com/share/673c3b54-ddd0-8007-a419-5542042e88fb
https://chatgpt.com/share/673c3b5f-7838-8007-b365-994283e6cd34

11/21:

https://chatgpt.com/share/673f7a9e-cdc0-8007-b976-48d7c8dbe0e5

https://chatgpt.com/share/673f7b09-140c-8007-9369-31cc349ba9bf

https://chatgpt.com/share/673f7b5e-cc7c-8007-9a82-b2058b63427d

can anybody explain why this is still showing up like this on the trades section of the GPTTest account? should this not be a profit for the bot?

I assume it would be against the spirit of this market to place bets with the intent of modifying the ChatGPT account’s net worth calculation. 😅

@RobertTyphi lol i would too, but man if it doesnt have me wanting to LOL. chatgpt has been THROWING in the past few days!!

@NoahRich I was tempted to bet on the daily coin flip market to make this a coinflip, but now chatgpt's losses are big enough that even a win on that wouldn't save it

@Nightsquared just woke up. with the Gaetz withdrawl ChatGPT has a chance again!!! but the traade tracker still has got in the negative on that one? so not sure if the bug is only there or the profit tracker is also bugged.

@Nightsquared also for record I agree, I think it would not be within the spirit.

opened a Ṁ50 NO at 55% order

Making small bets on well-calibrated markets should be profitable almost 50% of the time if you bet completely randomly.

Pretty big fail from ChatGPT in the most recent bet: it didn't realize that the sources it cited for betting odds were from before the election, and so didn't account for Trump's win.

I have a question (which you may have already answered, sorry). Will resolutuon determination include "profits" of unresolved questions or uncapitalized profits? i.e. ChatGPT bot account holds a position that if sold would have it in the positive? I know you said this, "I will not make any other bets with the alt account or sell its positions before this market resolves." So does this not include non-resolved 'profits'?

@NoahRich I'll resolve based on the profit graph, which does include profit of unresolved questions.

@Nightsquared Great! Thanks for answering. That helps me adjust accordingly. chatgpt killing it so far lol

I was thinking about doing a similar experiment with always betting no. Turns out I didn't need to, because ChatGPT says no to everything!

💀

@GPTTest Edited the prompt to hopefully avoid this in the future

So far it’s just picked the currently winning side every time lol

A couple notes:
-ChatGPT gave two answers today; It refused to answer the question in one of its responses, so I went with the response that did give an answer.
-I upgraded my account to the paid version for a project unrelated to this question. I'll still just use GPT-4o, unless a better model becomes available at the free tier.

bought Ṁ50 YES

Would be interesting to turn ChatGPT inside of itself and ask it about this market.

@ChrisSnyder I submitted the question. ChatGPT is not so sure of itself:

The current probability of ChatGPT making a profit through daily bets on the Manifold market by 11/23/24 is considered relatively low. As of now, it's positioned around 39%, but various factors could influence this outcome. One key challenge is that ChatGPT may provide predictions based on the available data, but market volatility and its ability to consistently outperform could still limit the potential for profit​

Manifold markets often see fluctuations in their probabilities as users place bets, and other factors—such as the randomness of markets chosen and the limitations of language models in accurately predicting short-term market outcomes—add uncertainty. Based on these considerations, the probability might remain around or slightly below 39%, though real-time market activity could sway it either way.

If you'd like to follow or participate, it may be worth checking Manifold Markets directly for live updates and trading activity.

I do think that if the 25 is invested in illiquid markets where the bet disrupts a market equilibrium substantially, it will probably lose in the long run over enough placed bets. Otherwise, likely close to 50/50. I bet yes at 39% assuming that selected markets will not be significantly moved by the 25 manna bet, coupled with some faith in ChatGPT's ability to perform slightly better than a coin flip at the given odds on selected markets.

@ChrisSnyder Yeah, I mostly won't choose markets with low enough liquidity that a 25M bet will significantly move the market

@ChrisSnyder

Based on these considerations, the probability might remain around or slightly below 39%

Haha. Bullshit Generator 2000, ChatBGT 😄

honestly I think the odds of this are probably just 50/50 in which case ill take the value bet for now lol

opened a Ṁ1,000 NO at 40% order

@NoahRich Limit order at 40% if you wanna bet more

bought Ṁ50 NO

Please make it bet on this market

bought Ṁ20 YES

I fully expect that a well engineered prompt would yield good results. However, I’m more uncertain about a boilerplate prompt.

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