Background
For the first time, the World Rapid and Blitz will be held in North America this year, as the chess year will close out on Wall Street in New York. The players will compete in a 13-round swiss, with a time control of 15 minutes + 10 second increment, starting from move one. The highest-scoring player after 13 rounds will be declared the champion, with ties being broken by a single-elimination bracket. Almost 200 players are set to participate in the event, including strong players like Magnus Carlsen, Hikaru Nakamura, Fabiano Caruana, Gukesh Dommaraju, and others.
Resolution Criteria
This market will resolve based on the official winner of the open section of the 2024 World Rapid Chess Championship, based on reporting by FIDE. If the tournament is canceled or postponed to 2025, the market will resolve as N/A. In the event of a tie for first place after the regular rounds, the market will resolve based on the winner according to the tiebreaking rules used for this tournament.
Considerations
Magnus Carlsen has won this event five times, including each of the past two years. Other previous winners who are participating this year include Nodirbek Abdusattorov (2021), Vasyl Ivanchuk (2016), and Shakhriyar Mamedyarov (2013).
The rapid format often produces more unpredictable results than classical chess, as even top players can make significant mistakes under time pressure
The tournament typically attracts a large field of strong players, making it more challenging to predict than match-play championships
Notes and Links
Tiebreaker rules and other info can be found here: https://handbook.fide.com/files/handbook/wrbc_regulations_2024_open.pdf
The list of players expected to attend can be found here: https://chess-results.com/tnr1074690.aspx?lan=1&art=0&flag=30
All players listed as an option at this market's creation are expected to play, but an option won't be "removed" or N/A'd if the associated player drops out.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ4,053 | |
| 2 | Ṁ1,941 | |
| 3 | Ṁ965 | |
| 4 | Ṁ808 | |
| 5 | Ṁ730 |
People are also trading
@Soni Do you no longer get M for others trading on your added option? I added Anish Giri but didn't get any mana from others trading on him
@Soni hmm, I thought you did, but I think they might have changed the notifications for these? check your balance log? i'll buy some shares of Anish Giri and we can see how it works
@benshindel I don't think another trade makes a difference. I last remembered a 5M bounty for every new trader on your option. Was not tracking my balance without this
@benshindel Yeah I don't get any mana for creating a new option.
Which means I have little incentive to make options for "Alexander Grischuk" and "V Pranav" even though they're close to the leader
@Nightsquared
All of these players are 0.5 points behind leader so can probably lead by next round
Javokhir Sindarov
Sam Sevian
Andrey Esipenko
I'd add all 3 for sure
The list of players a full point behind is way too long, so probably shouldn't be all added. Easier to just wait for Round 9 to be over first. I think all 3 bolded players are worth adding anyway maybe
Raunak Sadhwani
V Pranav
Bogdan-Daniel Deac
Levon Aronian
Ian Nepomniachtchi
Boris Gelfand
Lu Shanglei
Mahammad Muradli
Ray Robson
Bu Xiangzhi
Matthias Bluebaum
@Soni Boris Gelfand is my favorite player, but let's be real... he's not winning this tournament lol
@benshindel He probably isn't, but this is a wild tournament. I have not seen the lead change so many times, so one bad round for the leaders can suddenly bring Ian/Gelfand/Aronian in contention
@Nightsquared Please add the following players to the list
Denis Lazavik
He's the only player 0.5 points behind the leaders and not listed on this market.
Final day will most likely be chaos, but at least listing all players within 0.5 points is good just in case one of them has a great day
I don't know much about chess—this tourney is set for 13 rounds, wouldn't it be more natural to pick an even number so players can all receive the white pieces the same number of times? I know on rapid time controls there's lots of other sources of variation but it seems like an obvious/unavoidable unfair element?
@Ziddletwix It's a Swiss tournament, not round robin, so the quality of opponents is a much bigger factor.
A quick look at the results so far
https://www.chess.com/events/2024-fide-world-rapid-chess-championship/results
White has 162 wins to 122 losses (92 draws) so an extra white game is worth 0.05 wins equivalent to a 3 Elo difference in average opponent over the 13 games.
Actually the real reason is that an odd number of games is more fair than an even since
Swiss pairings cannot guarantee equal number of white and black with an even number of rounds. It's only guaranteed to be at most a difference of 2, so for example Shant Sargsyan had 3 white games vs 1 black game in the first 4 rounds.
@ChinmayTheMathGuy ooooh that does make sense actually—swiss makes it hard/impossible to maintain a perfect balance.
@ChinmayTheMathGuy very exciting day 1. wish the coverage was a little better—i enjoyed the stream on hikaru's channel, but the "official" stream felt very scattered in which matches it paid attention to (switching too often, and not spending enough time with the top favorites—magnus was about to lose and that's what i want to watch but they were showing something else)
i probably haven't tried all the streams though