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MANIFOLD
How many open sweepstakes markets will exist at the end of September?
26
Ṁ1kṀ21k
resolved Oct 1
50%50%
11-20
50%48%
20-50
0.2%
0
0.3%
1-2
0.3%
3-5
0.3%
6-10
0.5%
50-100
0.3%
100-200
0.4%
201+

Manifold just launched sweepstakes markets:

https://manifold.markets/ManifoldPolitics/will-trump-win-the-2024-election?play=false

https://manifold.markets/ZviMowshowitz/will-california-bill-sb-1047-become?play=false

How many will there be when this market closes? I may bet on this market.

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@traders Because I commented that I wouldn't count the Switch 2 market below, I will resolve this market based on a count of 20 currently open sweeps markets, so the two ranges including 20 will resolve 50%.
However, I believe the current end date of this market indicates the count should be 21, so to compensate, I will be sending mana to traders who bet on 20-50 and lost mana, equal to the amount they lost.

Also realized there is some overlap in these ranges, so if the final count is in two ranges, both of those ranges will resolve 50%

bought Ṁ25 YES

@Nightsquared how will you count sweeps markets with identical close time as this market? (It looks like there’s one, as this has a common default close time). Is it whether it’s open after you check? Or will you count those?

@Ziddletwix I won't count them