This question resolves YES if Donald Trump wins the 2024 US presidential election, or resolves NO if he loses the election.
If Trump is no longer a candidate for president for any reason, this question resolves YES if any candidate of the Republican Party wins the election, or NO otherwise.
Resolution will be based on the Associated Press and Fox News decision desks. If both the AP and Fox declare a winner, this question will be resolved 48 hours later if those calls are not retracted.
If the AP/Fox do not declare a winner, such as if there is a tie in the electoral college, this question will resolve YES if any candidate of the Republican Party is designated as the next president by the United States Congress before the end of January 31st, 2025 (ET), or will resolve NO otherwise.
1,000
3.00@AndrewKeen yeah, thought he claimed to fund his own research doing "neighbor" surveys since he thought normal polling was misleading due to shy Trump voters. It wasn't a degen gambler move, but rather, a truly informed speculation
@AlQuinn His polling method was not that robust and highly susceptible to overfit. In any case, I don't think it was a sufficient edge to justify the bet size. My preferred explanation for Polymarket efficiency is that he provided the liquidity for Harris holders to test their conviction that polls wouldn't miss in the same direction and they folded, which is as important if not more so because other sharps generally had net Harris positions.
@PlainBG I thought he didn't release any details on his polling, since the company he hired had a confidentiality agreement or something. could be wrong; this is from an article I skimmed this morning.
@AlQuinn He claims his polls show Trump winning by huge margin but that is not consistent with published research from 2020 that claimed the neighbor method reduced polling error relative to actual results. The final results were +2 national vote and +3-4 in swing states.
@PlainBG If the normal method gave +0 and neighbor method gave +10, then maybe the best guess was +2. Neighbor doesn't have to be better to improve the forecast. (I have no idea what he actually did.)
@travis Publicly available neighbor poll showed a 14 point gap in favor of Trump from before Biden dropped out. I think it's fair to question how precise his edge was and whether it was properly calibrated based on historical results, but I'm fine with giving him the credit for just doing more thinking/work than most others.
@AndrewKeen Anyone who trashes on betting markets like that is completely ignorant and not very smart. I'm as happy with the Trump victory as I am with the vindication of betting markets. They remain the best way to forecast future events and anyone who disagrees is literally just wrong. (why don't they just short every market and profit then?)
@PlainBG 14 point Trump-Biden gap (43-57) seems plausible to me, given 80% of voters saying that Biden was too old to run. That implies that roughly Biden gets:
All of the 20% who think he's too old
None of the 52% who prefer Trump to Harris
82% of the remaining "double hater" voters who think Biden is too old and prefer Harris to Trump.
Removed because I figured out how to properly embed a question in a comment above.
"If both the AP and Fox declare a winner, this question will be resolved 48 hours later if those calls are not retracted."
Women, back to the kitchen
Tyrannical misogyny
Abortions, illegal
Even for child incest-rape victims?
Gays, back in the closet
Tyrannical homophobia
Interracial marriage, banned
Even for JD Vance? His wife is of Indian ethnicity
Illegals, pack your bags
I don't fully agree but relatively sane compared to the rest
Trannies, back to the asylums
Tyrannical transphobia
Jesus, back in our schools
I don't fully agree but relatively sane compared to the rest
We are so back
Back to the 1800s? I'm pretty sure even Trump doesn't want half of these things
God is great. ๐ Sinners repent.
Why are you praising this?
@LukeShadwell What makes this tricky to pull off is that, like the placebo effect, it continues to work on you even if youโre aware of it.
@lxgr agreed it definitely has an effect on me too but Iโm British so the effect should be lesser on average