California Senator Scott Weiner of SF has introduced the bill (https://twitter.com/Scott_Wiener/status/1755650108287578585, https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billNavClient.xhtml?bill_id=202320240SB1047).
This bill would regulate AI systems in various ways.
Will it become law by the time the legislative session ends?
This resolves YES if SB 1047 becomes law as a substantively similar bill. I wouldn't count it if it is gutted so much that it now essentially does nothing, but mostly I will let lesser changes stand.
This resolves NO if SB 1047 does not become law by the deadline and the session is over. If the session runs late the deadline will be extended.
Note that this applies only to SB 1047, if another similar bill is introduced and passes that would not count (it seemed too messy to worry about edge cases).
Oh my god guys!!!!!!! It happened!!!!!
Well-known celebrities endorsing the bill bodes favorably for it IMO https://x.com/markruffalo/status/1835002982984712478?s=46
@EricNeyman I assure you, no matter what the outcome, no one is listening to Mark Ruffalo about this AI bill.
@ZviMowshowitz just clarifying that a pocket signature would resolve this market YES, correct? The close date/time is at the end of October 1st
(EDIT: largely incorrect, see further discussion!)
There’s a market-implied decent prob that newsom doesn’t veto or sign and just waits and it gets passed when the deadline passes I think? And polymarket != this market on that front. Polymarket asks if it’s gonna be passed before sept 30 and looks like deadline passes means that poly market resolves NO but this question resolves YES
@Bayesian Wait… do you know how to get confirmation on that? Where did you hear that? (I’m not betting on Polymarket I just want to be sure I understand the discrepancy)
confirmation that polymarket != this one? I don’t have confirmation. It’s my reading of
This resolves NO if SB 1047 does not become law by the deadline and the session is over. If the session runs late the deadline will be extended.
Polymarket and metaculus have a ‘strict’ seeming sept 30 deadline for the bill being signed into law, but here the deadline is a bit softer? I’m not sure
@Bayesian Hmmm, interesting, are you sure those wouldn’t still resolve YES (perhaps on arbitration) because the bill passes by pocket signature? Like, when does the bill become law? At 11:59? At 12:00?
@benshindel Idk, good question! But I know that if I’m wrong a bunch of these markets can be fixed, so someone in the know should do that
Correct me if I'm wrong, but "The Governor has 12 days to sign, approve without signing, or veto a bill." https://www.senate.ca.gov/citizens-guide/legislative-process and 12 days is well before Sept 30.
I'm super confused because tons of articles say the deadline is Sep 30, e.g. https://deadline.com/2024/09/ai-legislation-california-gavin-newsom-1236078402/ and https://techcrunch.com/2024/09/02/governor-newsom-must-weigh-the-future-of-californias-ai-industry-with-sb-1047/ and https://www.kcra.com/article/sign-veto-proposed-laws-gov-newsom-desk/62037640
But the 12 days deadline seems pretty clear...
@jack I'm trying to verify this but my tentative conclusion is
> The Governor has 12 days to make a decision if the Legislature is in session. If the Legislature has adjourned, the Governor has 30 days to act.
> Aug. 31 2024 Last day for each house to pass bills (Art. IV, Sec 10(c), J.R. 61(b)(17)). Final Recess begins upon adjournment (J.R. 51(b)(3)).
So the Legislature has adjourned, so the governor has 30 days to act
https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billNavClient.xhtml?bill_id=202320240SB1047
> Enrolled September 03, 2024
> Passed IN Senate August 29, 2024
> Passed IN Assembly August 28, 2024
It's currently not completely clear to me whether the 30 days countdown starts from September 3 or from August 29, which iiuc is basically what determines whether the bill becomes "passively enacted" by september 30
@Bayesian Yeah, the source is this section of the California constitution - it's Sep 30
(2) Any bill passed by the Legislature before September 1 of the second calendar year of the biennium of the legislative session and in the possession of the Governor on or after September 1 that is not returned on or before September 30 of that year becomes a statute.
The 30 days deadline is apparently a different case for a recess in the middle of the term
(Edit: I don't stand by anything i said more than 1 picosecond ago anymore so maybe this is wrong, see jack's reply)
@jack yeah I think you're right, in which case polymarket == metaculus == this market
@Bayesian polymarket has a sep 30 11:59 deadline though... If there's a pocket sign I expect a uma dispute.
Metaculus has a different issue with the pocket signature case, which I commented on over there (I bet they will fix it)
@Bayesian I think metaculus comes out ahead with the least rules issues of the three here haha, but still a positive amount