Manifold lottery tickets 50x return possible
Manifold lottery tickets 50x return possible
36
1kṀ40kresolved May 21
Resolved
NO1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
I have placed No limit orders at 2%. If you are interested in this lottery, you can purchase as many Yes shares at 2% as you wish, provided my No limit orders do not run out.
How the lottery will be decided:
I will roll a number from 1 to 52 using FairlyRandom at market close.
If the number rolled is 1, the market resolves as Yes. (All Yes buyers receive 50x return on their investment)
If the number rolled is not 1, the market resolves as No. (All Yes buyers get nothing)
The market closes after 30 days or after enough individuals have bought lottery tickets by purchasing Yes shares so i don't lose on subsidising this market, whichever comes first
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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| # | Name | Total profit |
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| 1 | Ṁ1,400 | |
| 2 | Ṁ70 | |
| 3 | Ṁ65 | |
| 4 | Ṁ52 | |
| 5 | Ṁ23 |
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Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
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Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.