Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if humans return to the Moon in 2026, defined as astronauts reaching the Moon's vicinity (lunar orbit or closer) during a crewed spaceflight mission that launches and completes in 2026. Artemis II is scheduled to launch between February and April 2026 as a crewed lunar flyby. Resolution will be confirmed via NASA's official mission status and announcements at https://www.nasa.gov/artemis/. The market resolves NO if no crewed mission reaches the Moon's vicinity in 2026, or if Artemis II is delayed beyond 2026.

Background

Four astronauts are poised to fly around the moon on a roughly 10-day mission — the closest humans will have gotten in more than half a century. The flight, known as Artemis II, could lift off as early as February. The four crew members will perform extensive testing in Earth orbit, and Orion will then be boosted into a free-return trajectory around the Moon, which will return Orion to Earth for re-entry and splashdown. Artemis III is planned to be the first American crewed lunar landing since Apollo 17 in December 1972.

Considerations

The mission will serve as a crucial test of NASA's next-generation Space Launch System rocket and Orion spacecraft, which have been in development for more than a decade and faced years of setbacks. In December 2024, outgoing Administrator Nelson announced that the launch was delayed due to the months of engineering investigations into issues with the life support system and heat shield. The Artemis program has a history of schedule delays, so traders should monitor NASA's official updates for any further postponements.