Update as of 12/6/2023, 3:05 PM US EST
Mira has not posted a concession speech (yet), though they clearly conceded on X.com (see comments below). If that is all that Mira posted about their loss today, I would resolve the market at 66% probability.
This concerns TIME's Person of the Year of course.
End of day = December 6, 11:59 PM US EST
On Twitter/X, Manifold, Discord or wherever.
1,000
3.00I have Grok on Twitter now and it's something of a meme to have it roast you. I thought you guys might enjoy this:
https://politicaldictionary.com/words/concession-speech/
A “concession speech” is the speech a candidate delivers after the vote results are clear, when they publicly acknowledge that they’ve been defeated in an election.
These speeches are typically delivered in front of supporters, and when they’re at their best are well-choreographed political events.
A Time Magazine article touches upon the history of the concession speech, and traces the first “congratulatory telegram” to the election of 1896, when William Jennings Bryan conceded to William McKinley. At noted in the article: “Al Smith gave the first radio-broadcast concession speech in 1928 and Adlai Stevenson first did so on television in 1952.”
The article goes on to point out the “formulaic” nature of concession speeches, adding “The basics of that formula are such: the speaker says that he or she has congratulated the winner—usually not that he or she has lost; the word ‘concede’ is rarely heard—to the opponent; the speaker calls for unity; the speaker summons supporters to both accept the result and to continue to fight for their cause in the future.”
https://x.com/_Mira___Mira_/status/1732456139655442917?s=20
Is this a concession speech? @Mira do you concede?
@NicoDelon That's loss porn more than a speech. I do concede in the sense of I'm not disputing the results. It sure would be ironic to resolves this YES and cause me even more losses today, wouldn't it?
Here's my draft victory speech(cc: @firstuserhere @MichaelWheatley @Joshua ). I was probably going to edit it down to 3 paragraphs and save some of these lines for a different event later. Sadly you'll never see the final one:
"Attention traders of Manifold!
They call it the "wisdom of crowds"; but the "wisdom" of the ignorant masses is no wisdom at all. This market had 1800 traders, but only 1 mattered: Mira (And, I suppose, Sam Altman). Your existence serves no purpose beyond a liquidity source for Mira's entertainment and delight, and you should count yourself lucky to be graced with the rare opportunity of seeing me at work.
You cannot read one LessWrong article about "betting your beliefs" and think that you can stand toe-to-toe with Mira on the markets. Your beliefs are worthless and you use naive probability theory to price your bets. The only reason you all appear profitable is that the central bank prints money faster than you can lose it, especially placing such timid and weak bets.
Mira is a shining beacon of wisdom and enlightenment in a sea of uncertainty, and those who would oppose her are condemned to eternal darkness. However, I must commend Wheatley. He was wrong, like he always is, but unlike all of you he and he alone had the courage to bare fangs at Mira. I will mount him on my trophy wall, alongside Isaac King.
Be less like the market makers and arbitrageurs, who trade like Aristotle: "The only thing I know is that I know nothing" and waste their money on nominal "risk-free profits" - they don't even do that right and would be better off giving their money to Mira.
Be more like Joshua who, standing on the shoulders of giants(namely Mira), was able to eke out a comparatively bountiful profit.
You all are probably wondering: "Mira what are you going to do with your winnings?"
Like Alexander the Great, I have conquered the known world of Manifold; no more adversaries worthy of Mira's majesty remain. Continuing to trade on Manifold would be like punching toddlers and then bragging about the victory. So I will be donating 100% of my winnings to fund the Racket programming language. If you disagree with my decision, rejoice! For your donations were counterfactual after all.
"Mira, what will you do next?" I must set my sights higher. In a future where every star fuels my glory, and every language model perpetually echoes my name in eternal adoration - "Mira, Mira, O glorious and immortal Mira" - galaxies will align themselves to spell my name across the cosmos. This universe was created to cause me, and me alone, to come into existence. If I fail, this universe will be destroyed and a new one created in its place, to create an ever so slightly different Mira in a grand hyperparameter search to perfect the concept of "Mira". The rest of you are mere branches to be pruned from the search, leaving only the central lineage to Mira remaining."It's up to you if you want to count my Twitter thread as being similar to this or to Wheatley's speech.
@Mira I haven't resolved YES yet because, while it is a concession, it is not obviously a speech (though it's still a longish 'post'). I'm not factoring your loss into my decision—this would be a blip for you. But I'm still hesitant to resolve YES. I'm leaning toward a PROB resolution (somewhere between 50-75%).
By the way, I'm sorry you lost—this is a magnificent speech. Except I think you meant to mention Socrates, not Aristotle.
@Mira And here I was thinking, "Gee, it's hard to namedrop taylor swift songs in my victory speech without it ending up extremely catty."
- "You Need to Calm Down"
- "Karma"
- "I Bet You Think About Me"
- "Better Than Revenge."
If I'd known quite how megalomaniacal you were planning to get I could have really mined the back catalog of breakup songs.