Will there be Leopard (1 or 2) tanks in service in Ukraine by June 2023?
93%
chance

The question is whether there are Leopard tanks in Ukraine before June 1st 2023. The market will stay open until end of June. Then I will resolve to the best of my abilities.

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PS avatar
PS
sold Ṁ76 of NO

Spiegel reports that Germany made the decision to send Leopard 2 tanks. However, it's not clear when it will be implemented.

PS avatar
PS
is predicting NO at 73%

@NickelChen The title of the market says "by June", which for me means "before June 1"; but the closing date is June 30. Could you clarify what you mean?

NickelChen avatar
Nick el Chen
is predicting YES at 73%

@PS Oh shit. I fucked up June and July in my description. The first thing I set up was the close date and then I got confused when it came to the title.

Right now, I'd rather use the date given in the title as the deadline. Sometimes weapons deliveries aren't announced until they've already been in service for some time. So I might have to resolve the market later than June 1st anyway.

I'll have to anger some people on way or another. How would you fix my mistake?

PS avatar
PS
is predicting NO at 73%

@NickelChen These things happen 🤷
If you're going with the June 1st deadline, I'd just add a description saying that it's indeed the date you mean, but you'll wait for up to a month until you resolve. People could even continue to trade if they think Leopards are already in service/haven't actually been in service by the deadline.

NickelChen avatar
Nick el Chen
is predicting YES at 73%

@PS Thnak you :) I'll add that to my description.

StanPinsent avatar
Stan Pinsent
is predicting YES at 73%

@PS But Poland's Leopards could be ready much sooner, I think

PS avatar
PS
is predicting NO at 73%

@StanPinsent Might be true, I don't know what the state is. If they can be prepared quickly, and the Ukrainians trained quickly, this might work out.