Will there be Leopard (1 or 2) tanks in service in Ukraine by June 2023?
79
413
1.6K
resolved Jul 4
Resolved
YES

The question is whether there are Leopard tanks in Ukraine before June 1st 2023. The market will stay open until end of June. Then I will resolve to the best of my abilities.

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<aside> 💡 I am using my moderation permissions to resolve this market on behalf of the creator. This is according to the Manifold Markets unresolved markets policy found here.

If the creator returns and wishes to change the resolution, please reply to this comment and tag @DavidChee. The admins will then undo the resolution I chose and you may pick your desired resolution.

</aside>

bought Ṁ2,700 of YES

This can resolve now @NickelChen

@Svenbonne I won't resolve until the market has been closed. But I will resolve Yes.

bought Ṁ10 of YES

@NickelChen I'm sure they'll be by June, but I'm not sure they're in service yet, they just are in Ukraine for now.

predicted NO
sold Ṁ30 of NO

@MartinModrak Might actually already be in Ukraine (Andrzej Duda: Polish Leopard 2 Tanks Already Arrived In Ukraine - Belarusian News - Charter'97 (charter97.org)) also reported by other media, but with worse links.

bought Ṁ50 of YES

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1629155136114241538 Video clip from a press event, reportedly somewhere in or near Kyiv, with Prime Ministers of Ukraine and Poland inspecting visible Leopard 2A4s and commenting on the first completed delivery.

https://tvpworld.com/66561212/polish-leopard-2-tanks-have-arrived-in-ukraine-polands-def-minister Polish state media coverage.

@yaboi69 Thank you for the news

predicted YES

Could you clarify "in Service" a little? Do theLeos need to beinvolved in active battle or do they just need to be under control of the UDF?

@Svenbonne sorry, I've missen your question. Under Ukrainian control is a yes.

sold Ṁ76 of NO

Spiegel reports that Germany made the decision to send Leopard 2 tanks. However, it's not clear when it will be implemented.

predicted NO

@NickelChen The title of the market says "by June", which for me means "before June 1"; but the closing date is June 30. Could you clarify what you mean?

predicted YES

@PS Oh shit. I fucked up June and July in my description. The first thing I set up was the close date and then I got confused when it came to the title.

Right now, I'd rather use the date given in the title as the deadline. Sometimes weapons deliveries aren't announced until they've already been in service for some time. So I might have to resolve the market later than June 1st anyway.

I'll have to anger some people on way or another. How would you fix my mistake?

predicted NO

@NickelChen These things happen 🤷
If you're going with the June 1st deadline, I'd just add a description saying that it's indeed the date you mean, but you'll wait for up to a month until you resolve. People could even continue to trade if they think Leopards are already in service/haven't actually been in service by the deadline.

predicted YES

@PS Thnak you :) I'll add that to my description.

predicted YES

@PS But Poland's Leopards could be ready much sooner, I think

predicted NO

@StanPinsent Might be true, I don't know what the state is. If they can be prepared quickly, and the Ukrainians trained quickly, this might work out.

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