
Will Russia annex Belarus until 2025?
29
1kαΉ2743Dec 31
5%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
Sort by:
Could you please define annexing here? Technically Russia and Belarus are already a Union: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Union_State
I think any kind of tighter integration is going to happen via this entity. Lukashenko signed a bunch of documents for further integration, although he keeps intentionally flaking on them.
@42irrationalist By annexing I meant with military force or other pressure not via the ongoing process of integration. Both would resolve as a yes.
Related questions
Related questions
Will Russia invade any NATO country before 31 December 2026?
4% chance
Will Russia annex Belarus until 2030?
22% chance
Will Russia completely annex Ukraine by end of 2025?
2% chance
Will Belarus invade Ukraine by the end of 2025?
11% chance
Will Belarus join Russia willingly before the end of 2027?
12% chance
Will Transnistria be annexed by Russia until EOY 2025?
10% chance
Will Belarus invade Ukraine by the end of 2026?
8% chance
Will Belarus invade Ukraine by the end of 2024?
2% chance
Will Belarus be at least partly free by end of 2025?
10% chance
[Metaculus] Will Russia significantly incorporate Belarus into the Union State before 2030?
40% chance