Will more than 50,000 Israeli soldiers cross into Gaza during 2023?
resolved Jan 1

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predicted YES

I tried my best to find estimates and this is the closet I got.

8 out of 10 active-duty brigades have been fully committed to Gaza. Brigade is 3000-7000 in the IDF


That's only counting active-duty brigades. The IDF has twice as many reservists as active duty soldiers.

This one is going to be very hard to resolve. IDF censor does not permit any of this information to be publicly released.

bought Ṁ50 YES from 74% to 75%

@Shump Given the ratio of 1:2 active duty to reservists, and the fact that there are 20 reserve brigades, this gives as an estimate of 72,000-168,000. I know this is very handwavy but it seems higher than 50k even given a good margin of error.

predicted YES

@Shump I appreciate this. I was looking through these numbers earlier but was too busy to follow through on the math.

Do you have any official source which is counting the number of soldiers?

@MrLuke255 Not sure if IDF releases data that would allow at least for a best estimate, otherwise no direct source.

@Nostradamnedus Then how are you planning to resolve it if there’s no source for it?

@ben Judging from the username... this could be revealed to him? 🤔

@ben I will accept the rough concensus of estimates from non-official sources, barring any outliers.