Will a single shooting incident kill at least 20 people in the US during 2023?
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resolved Jan 1
Resolved
NO

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predicted NO

Bunch of buy orders at 17/16 if anyone wants to bet it back down to its historical likelihood of under 10% in the next 2 months.

predicted NO

@Panfilo

Edit: I originally misread the OP as 10% not under 10%

https://www.statista.com/statistics/476101/worst-mass-shootings-in-the-us/

They've increased in frequency with five in the last ten years. Still, using back of napkin math for the last ten years gives a 1/2 chance annually. 1/6 x 1/2 should give us 1/12 or 8ish% odds of one occuring by end of year.

predicted YES

@VerySeriousPoster probably 'historical' as in where it was at before Maine

predicted NO

@VerySeriousPoster last I checked, 8% is "under" 10%

predicted NO

@AlQuinn ... I'm an idiot.

predicted YES

@VerySeriousPoster for what it's worth at least you're not the kind of idiot who dropped 3k mana on this market based on breaking (incorrect) news agreeing with your earlier prediction

predicted NO

@dgga 3K mistakes are a rite of passage; here's mine:

predicted YES
predicted NO

Say someone is injured in a shooting incident before the end of the year and dies sometime after 2023/12/31. Would they count towards the tally?

predicted YES

@JavierPrieto No since they won't be killed during 2023.

predicted YES

Steven Littleson said at least three patients remain in critical condition at the Central Maine Medical Center in Lewiston and five others are in stable after the mass shooting.

predicted YES

@CromlynGames and shooter found dead from suicide. 19?

bought Ṁ100 of NO

@CromlynGames the suicide only counts if it took place on the same day, which is currently unclear

predicted YES

@Ramble I would say it is part of the same “incident”

predicted NO

@Ramble however, it is clearly not in the same city, as required below by market creator. The location where he was found dead is 3.6 miles outside of Lewiston city limits in Lisbon Falls.

bought Ṁ400 of NO

If the shooter kills more before capture, will that be considered part of the same incident?

predicted NO

@JimHays below it says same person same city same day

predicted YES

Depressing to the extreme. I was hoping not to win and lose this one.

predicted NO

@Abraxas yeah, looks like reopening seems reasonable.

predicted NO

@AndrewG seconded -all reports I'm seeing now say 18 dead and 3 in critical condition at the hospital. This may resolve yes if only 1 of them makes it, but as it is the resolution criteria have not been met.

predicted NO

News sources reporting less than 20 dead why is this resolved?

predicted NO

@ChadwickMiller Some sources report "at least 14", others "at least 22". IMHO, this question should be closed but not resolved until we get firmer numbers.