Will the AI Safety Clock reach 20 minutes to midnight by June 2025?
9
Ṁ100Ṁ1kresolved Oct 1
Resolved
NO1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ40 | |
| 2 | Ṁ39 | |
| 3 | Ṁ33 | |
| 4 | Ṁ24 | |
| 5 | Ṁ16 |
Sort by:
@mods banned user. The clock only reached 20 to midnight in September 2025 https://www.imd.org/ibyimd/artificial-intelligence/imd-ai-safety-clock-makes-biggest-leap-yet-amid-weaponization-and-rise-of-agentic-ai/
Resolves NO
People are also trading
Related questions
The next time the AI Safety Clock moves, will it move further away from midnight?
33% chance
Will a publicly known AI model achieve an 80% time horizon that is an 1 hour and 30 minutes by September 2026?
84% chance
AI time horizon of 20 hours by January 1st 2027?
85% chance
Will the Doomsday Clock reach 50 seconds to midnight by 2027?
13% chance
Will an AI system be known to have resisted shutdown before the end of 2026?
35% chance
[ACX 2026] Will an AI model reach a 3 hour time horizon with 80% reliability during 2026?
58% chance
Will the Doomsday Clock reach 20 minutes or more to midnight before 2050?
24% chance
Will the Doomsday Clock reach 30 seconds to midnight by 2029?
42% chance
Will the Doomsday Clock reach 20 seconds to midnight by 2030?
51% chance
Will the Doomsday Clock reach 40 seconds to midnight by 2028?
24% chance