Will Manifold Markets adjust the M$20 loan to require some small percentage of buy-in in order to reduce long shot $M20 bets clogging the odds, by April 30th 2022?
6
Ṁ103Ṁ279resolved Mar 16
Resolved
N/A1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This market resolves to "Yes" if MM stops allowing no-cost loans by the end of April in order to disincentivize long shot, high payout free bets from messing up the long odds questions. Otherwise resolves to "No"
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Sort by:
Shouldn't this resolve to NO? The question was perfectly valid, it just turned out the answer was no. :)
Also, I don't think accounts going negative is a problem. The loans actually provide a neat way for people who placed some bad bets to build their way back up from M$ 0 or below if they have the skill to do so.
Ah, OK, I didn't know that, thanks for clarifying. That makes it less viable of a strategy from a gamesmanship standpoint. Is there anything preventing someone from betting with money that would run their account negative if they lose?
Since the max payout is less than the amount you get for free when you start it shouldn't really be a problem either way. I'll resolve this N/A shortly. Thanks again.
Well, here's an example of one where I bet the free M$20 doubling the indicated odds that Queen Elizabeth would pass away in the next month from ridiculous to twice ridiculous.
https://manifold.markets/abk/before-or-at-april-5th-2022-a-reput
From the perspective of someone trying to game the system, seeing odds < (abs) 5% is an automatic bet on the long shot with the free money. There's no cost to losing, and if I land a few then my $M in my account jumps dramatically, which I can then leverage on other bets.
From the perspective of people trying to get predictive information from the market, however, it just means that once the absolute value of the odds on a question start getting close to either extreme, the info quality will go down.
See also the market on Dewayne Johnson's presidential run; I'm betting a lot of the "yes" bets are with the free money only.
Interesting -- thanks for the feedback, Nick! Can you point us to some markets where the loans features seems to be distorting long-odds questions in the wrong way? Our hope was actually that loans would have the opposite effect, to encourage betting to correct a probability without tying up your funds for doing so.