Resolution will be flexible, 2 weeks after operations in Gaza as a result of the October attacks cease.
Ed 12 Oct: I realize "in response to whatever they do in Gaza" isn't clear. Should be "while this operation in Gaza is ongoing".
🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ39 | |
| 2 | Ṁ38 | |
| 3 | Ṁ36 | |
| 4 | Ṁ33 | |
| 5 | Ṁ29 |
Why was this market at 28% while this other similar market was at 36%? (I've since arbitraged them a bit closer, 31% vs 35%) https://manifold.markets/MilfordHammerschmidt/will-any-other-nations-join-the-ham
- Maybe different definitions of what counts as a nation? (But both questions seem to imply a high bar that would exclude, eg, Hezbollah acting alone.)
- Maybe "joining the war on the side of Hamas" implies a lower bar (sending weapons, etc) than explicitly "declaring war or invading"? (But in the comments, the author of the other question specifies that "boots on the ground" are necessary, so this can't be it.)
- Maybe the other market includes countries like Lebanon potentially getting invaded by Israel and then defending themselves, wheras this market might not count this (if Lebanon defended, but never officially declared war and never invaded Israeli soil)? But this doesn't seem like it could account for much probability mass...
