Will there be more than 650 Mass Shootings in the U.S. in 2023?
66
621
แน€1K
resolved Dec 31
Resolved
YES

The data source will be gunviolencearchive.org


Data for past years from that source: https://www.gunviolencearchive.org/past-tolls
2022: 646
2021: 690
2020: 610
2019: 415
2018: 336

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Resolved YES since it currently displays 652 mass shootings on 2023

predicted YES

@NiciusB Resolves Yes as of the latest update; now showing 651.

predicted YES

@traders
Their CSV is stuck at #650 with no updates to the sites CSV since prior to Christmas.

So is it 650 or 690 we are at now?

(Mass Murder by gun is a subset of the Mass Shooting count.)
GVA Explainer : Mass Shooting Methodology and Reasoning

Maybe @parhizj would know. Not sure.

predicted YES

@SirCryptomind I don't see any harm in waiting a few days for their first update (or even a finalized tally) sometime in early 2024.

predicted YES

@SirCryptomind If it's subset, why would it be 690?

predicted YES

@Weezing Agreed. The data listed in the question description makes it clear how to read the chart. We're currently looking at 650, but with no changes in several days I expect it's just a data lag issue and we'll see an update with a higher count soon enough.

predicted YES

@Weezing I was just asking, I know subset #s are usually included, but some of these website don't and add them up for a final number. But after looking at previous year data I do realize that that it is 610+40= 650.

I also just hate charts, and like raw data in csv or similar form for stuff like this.

@EvanDaniel Yea, no rush, I know they will post their 2023 official chart once they update the site to 2024 tracking.

predicted YES
predicted YES

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predicted YES
predicted YES

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predicted YES

@NiciusB Is it ok to reopen this for continued trading?

predicted YES

why did this close @NiciusB?

predicted YES

damn I literally predicted 1 minute before close and didn't realize it was closing so soon lol.

predicted YES

@SirCryptomind I got a lot of my passive bets which closed weirdly early. Iโ€™m trying to get better about pinging them.

bought แน€15 of YES

631 as of now. Even in 2020 there were 21 after this. Using 2021 as an analog (which had 26 after this day) from the number so far, might expect up to 25 more to 656. ๐Ÿ˜”

currently at 604, exactly one year ago had 599, comparing oct 31 we get 572 for 2022 and 583 for 2023, so it seems to be slowing down. might be related to the maine shooting though causing some effect

predicted YES

@ii why would drug dealers and gangbangers stop shooting each other over something that happened in Maine?

predicted NO

@AlQuinn Those aren't mass shootings. Mass shootings are motivated by their fame, people want to get famous. But when there's already been a mass shooting recently in the news, having another one doesn't have as much of an effect on the public consciousness.

@ii True, and almost all of the cases Gun Violence Archive categorizes as mass shootings aren't mass shootings.

sold แน€63 of YES

@Awaclus they are mass shootings, by their very clear definition. I agree that there is a very small subset of mass shootings that are done for notoriety with a very different etiology than the typical ones, but arguing about what we should have a certain phrase mean is dull.

@AlQuinn For the purposes of this prediction market, obviously mass shootings are defined as "whatever the GVA thinks is a mass shooting" (and the definition they have is indeed very clear: any incident where four or more victims are shot and injured/killed), which is pointless to debate because it has already been defined that way for this purpose. The word also doesn't have magic powers so we can define it in whatever way we want and the nature of the incidents that actually happened is not going to change. So in that sense, I do agree.

The stereotypical mass shooting has a lot of pretty specific properties that are not included in the GVA definition though, which is why it is easy for people to get confused about what actual phenomenon the GVA is measuring and thus about what actual phenomenon this market is trying to predict, as demonstrated in this very comment thread.

predicted YES

Q1 2023 total is 131, so naive annualization lands projection at 524, which is far below YES-level. However, it's too damned cold to go shooting people in Q1, so pace ramps up in summer. 2023 is trending above 2022 by 19 events (112 Q1 2022). Taking last 9 full years of data, an average of 17% of total full-year events happened in Q1, so extrapolation on that basis yields an estimate of 791. Here is the extrapolated 2023 figure for last 9 years, based on annualizing off of % of Q1 events in each of the years:

Year Extrapolated '23 Est.

2014 713

2015 722

2016 836

2017 577 <<< Q1 was ~23% of full year! Looks like it was a warm winter

2018 830

2019 824

2020 1,142 <<< Burn Loot Murder uprising in summer

2021 773

2022 756

Out of the last 9 years, modeling off of only 2017 yields a NO estimate, so almost 90% YES implied. 2023 winter was warmish in the anarchic Democrat cities where these shootings take place, so hedging a bit and thinking 50-65% chance of YES based on YTD numbers.