What percentage of this short story is AI-generated?
resolved Jun 25
Resolved as

Resolves with probability as (words written by AI / total words) * 100 in the following text:

It was a busy day at the lake. Recent sightings of the legendary golden fish, that was said to grant a single wish, had attracted even people from the city. Day after day, they casted their nets, hoping for a glimpse of its shimmering scales. Most skeptics called it a hoax, just con artists seeking to profit, but they could not deny it any longer the day the world ended

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AI Percentage: 44.28%

AI Part 1: (Prompt: write a few short stories of one paragraph that have a satisfying ending. It generated 5 and I picked this one)

In a tiny coastal village, fisherman Ben had always dreamed of catching the legendary golden fish that was said to grant a single wish. Day after day, he cast his nets, hoping for a glimpse of its shimmering scales. One evening, as the sun kissed the horizon, his perseverance paid off. The golden fish danced in his hands, and Ben's heart skipped a beat. But instead of making a wish, he released the fish back into the sea, realizing that his true wish had already come true—he had discovered the immeasurable value of contentment and gratitude in the pursuit of his dreams.

AI Part 2: (Prompt: Continue this story with one paragraph: first part of the text until “What they didn’t know is”)
that the golden fish was nothing more than an elaborate hoax, carefully orchestrated by a group of con artists seeking to profit from people's desperate desires. Behind the scenes, they had fabricated tales of miraculous wishes and planted the fish in the lake, ensuring its discovery would ignite a frenzy. As the sun set on another fruitless day of fishing, the con artists reveled in their deceitful scheme, counting the profits they had amassed from the unwitting believers. Little did they know, however, that their web of lies was about to unravel, setting in motion a series of unforeseen consequences.

Words by AI:

of the legendary golden fish that was said to grant a single wish Day after day nets hoping for a glimpse of its shimmering scales hoax con artists seeking to profit

Words by human:

It was a busy day at the lake Recent sightings had attracted even people from the city they casted their Most skeptics called it a just but they could not deny it any longer the day the world ended

predicted NO

@NiciusB Props to your creative mixing.

predicted NO

“Attracted even people from the city”

“Casted their bets”

“the world ended” (no period)

Seems like too much awkward English to be AI generated (unless clever prompting was used to conceal it)

predicted NO

@ShadowyZephyr I tried a little bit prompting chatGPT to give it bad grammar but it was difficult to come out like this.

predicted NO

@parhizj First sentence could be either human or AI, second seems human, third seems human, fourth is hard to tell until “but they” then it seems human

predicted NO

@ShadowyZephyr I tried different prompts to get chatGPT to generate this story, and "shimmering scales" did come out in one of the prompts.

predicted NO

@parhizj Okay, maybe it’s not sentence by sentence and the ai generated part is in between the human parts. The point is that it seems like only 20-25% is ai generated to me

predicted NO

@ShadowyZephyr Yeah, I also think it's very low.

@parhizj Thanks for the roast I guess xD. My english is not the best but I think the main issue is that I’m just a terrible writer. The AI percentage was indeed lower, I tried to keep as much as possible while making a cohesive short text

predicted NO

@ShadowyZephyr You nailed them all as human.

@NiciusB It was very creative. I think it would be actually somewhat time-consuming for "good" writers to mix it to make it convincingly 50/50 like you've done, and even harder to get an AI to do it.

bought Ṁ10 of NO

This story reads like a (somewhat poorly) rewrite of the parable with the golden fish as a metaphor for AGI and it's existential risk.

Given my judgment of the market creator's (relatively) pessimistic attitude towards future capabilities of AI based on @NiciusB bets, I would expect the author to expect that most people would guess this is written by (an outdated) AI, or AI with prompting to emulate bad grammar (this I think is a bit more difficult to tune/emulate). Unexpectedly, the fact that it is poorly written I am taking as a sign it was mostly written by a human with poor English, though there are some examples of some cribbed phrases such as "shimmering scales".

As the market is at 60% I am betting NO (my very non-scientific judgment puts it at around 10%).

I don't know how this market will resolve to a % if its YES/NO? Not that familiar with this type of market.

bought Ṁ10 of NO

@parhizj YES/NO markets can be resolved to any number PROB1-99 and they will return funds by closing all positions at that %.

predicted NO

@Gen Had no clue about that. Thanks.