Resolution criteria

The referendum will be held by spring 2026 on a major constitutional reform of the justice system known as the Nordio reform. Justice minister Carlo Nordio stated the referendum would likely be held between mid-March and mid-April 2026. The market resolves YES if the "Yes" vote wins (approving the reform), and NO if the "No" vote wins (rejecting the reform).

Background

On 30 October, the Italian Parliament approved the Nordio reform, but since it did not secure the two-thirds parliamentary majority required for a constitutional amendment to enter into force, it will go to a referendum. The reform makes three important changes: separating careers between judges and prosecutors, creating two separate self-governing bodies for judges and prosecutors, and establishing a High Disciplinary Court for both judges and prosecutors. The Nordio reform introduces a definitive separation of career paths to prevent judges from becoming prosecutors and vice versa. The reform proposes to split the current High Council of the Judiciary in two, with magistrates selected at random (by sortition), while lay members will be drawn from a restricted parliamentary shortlist.

The exact referendum date is not publicly available yet, but it's expected to be either in March or April of 2026.

Considerations

The National Association of Magistrates and centre-left opposition parties are strongly opposed to the reform, claiming it will weaken the judiciary and accusing the government of seeking control over the judiciary. According to a Noto Institute poll, 57% of Italians would confirm the reform, 22% would be against it, and 21% would be undecided. Voters have fresh memory of the 2016 constitutional referendum when former Prime Minister Matteo Renzi's reform was rejected with 59% voting 'no,' leading to his resignation.