What will the outcome of the US presidential election be, conditional on the criminal trials against Trump?
43
4.8k
Nov 9
47%
Donald Trump is convicted of felony, also wins election
50%
Donald Trump is convicted of felony, doesn't win election
1.6%
Donald Trump is not convicted of felony, and wins election
1.1%
Donald Trump is not convicted felony, doesn't win election
0.3%
OTHER

This is designed to figure out how much "will trump win the election" and "will trump be convicted" are actually the same questions. Might make for useful arbitrage!

Given the closing date, this market will conclude with the best eligible "not convicted" even if the criminal proceedings are still ongoing, so "other" will not be chosen simply because the criminal trials has not been concluded by time of election

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@Joshua ahh God sorry i hate duplicate questions. Apologies for stealing liquidity, I was far too impressed with my idea to think about the obvious question of whether a bunch of numbers people would have thought of this already

@NeoPangloss The search feature sucks, don't blame you at all!

Trump's legal problems are in the news so was a good time to get a new bit of trading, and all the arb will now hopefully make the markets more accurate.

We do try to unsub dupes though, as I have now done here. I actually just created a tag for non-mod users to apply for cases where they recognize a dupe. So if you hate dupes then feel free to apply it to any you see:

https://manifold.markets/browse/arbitrage-with-existing-question?s=score&f=open&ct=ALL&tab=browse

@Joshua will do, appreciate it, not sure what the culture here is and how much I stepped on it but I wish I had held myself to a higher standard there. Betting on your market!

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