Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to the Democratic candidate who receives the highest number of votes in the Arizona 7th Congressional District special primary election held on July 15, 2025. Official results will be sourced from the Arizona Secretary of State's website: Arizona Secretary of State Election Results

Background

The special election was called to fill the vacancy left by the death of Representative Raúl Grijalva in March 2025. Arizona's 7th Congressional District encompasses parts of six counties: Pima, Santa Cruz, Yuma, Cochise, Maricopa, and Pinal, as well as four sovereign tribal nations: the Cocopah, Pascua Yaqui, Quechan, and Tohono O’odham. The district is 60% Hispanic, with 40% registered Democrats, 37% independents, and 21% Republicans. (azluminaria.org)

The Democratic primary features five candidates:

• Adelita Grijalva: Daughter of the late Raúl Grijalva, she has served on the Tucson Unified School District Governing Board for 20 years and the Pima County Board of Supervisors since 2020. She is considered the frontrunner, emphasizing progressive values and has received endorsements from figures like Senator Bernie Sanders and Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. (rollcall.com)

• Daniel Hernández Jr.: A former state representative and former Sunnyside Unified School District board member. He gained national attention for assisting Representative Gabrielle Giffords during the 2011 shooting. Known for his moderate stance, he previously ran in the neighboring 6th District. (rollcall.com)

• Deja Foxx: A 25-year-old activist and social media strategist who began organizing at 16, advocating for updates to Tucson Unified School District's sex education policy. She gained prominence for confronting Senator Jeff Flake over Planned Parenthood funding and has been dubbed the "next AOC" by Newsweek. (axios.com)

• Patrick Harris Sr.: A retired businessman with a focus on community development and economic growth. Specific campaign details are limited.

• Jose Malvido Jr.: A nonprofit program officer emphasizing social services and community outreach. Further campaign information is scarce.

Considerations

Given the district's strong Democratic leaning, the primary winner is likely to secure the seat in the general election. The race highlights a dynamic between progressive and moderate ideologies within the Democratic Party, with Grijalva and Foxx representing progressive platforms, while Hernández offers a more moderate approach. Voter turnout and engagement in this special election may provide insights into the party's direction and voter priorities ahead of the 2026 elections.