Is the singularity in the next 100 days (possibly resolves based on toddler's opinion)?
4
71
160
Jul 17
36%
chance

Market based on:

https://twitter.com/gptbrooke/status/1776996903009321459

Resolution Criteria (ranked by superiority for resolution)

0) X-risk = market is irrelevant as we no longer have internet

1) Ask Brooke to check with original oracle who foretold this prophecy - resolves yes or no

2) Ask Brooke her opinion - resolves yes or no

3) Defaults to No, unless there is some Obvious Yes (Significant change to global economy, technology or employment).

For 3- Company Z released Model K which expert Y says is the key to the future is NOT enough to resolve this as yes.

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could you phrase the criteria more clearly? I propose something like:
1) Ask brooke and brooke's original oracle (who foretold the prophecy) if they think we have reached the singularity
2) If either one says we have, resolves YES
3) if they don't, resolves NO
4) If they don't reply, resolves N/A

@Bayesian updated based in part on your suggestions.

This is recreation of: https://manifold.markets/NeilG/is-the-singularity-in-the-next-100d which was resolved by admin, Note the resolution criteria in description.

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