Background

Russia's invasion of Ukraine has been ongoing since February 2022, with current military activities focused on several fronts:

• Eastern Ukraine: Russian forces are pushing to capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and secure Donetsk Oblast

• Northern Ukraine: Marginal advances in northern Sumy Oblast with attempts to interdict Ukrainian ground lines of communication

• Kursk Oblast: Operations to push Ukrainian forces from their positions following Ukraine's cross-border incursion in August 2023

Russian milbloggers have speculated about potential future offensives into northern Sumy Oblast and Chernihiv Oblast, which would align with President Putin's stated goal of creating a "security zone" along the Ukrainian-Russian border.

Resolution Criteria

This market resolves to YES if Russia launches a new major offensive on a previously inactive front or border area of Ukraine before the end of March 2025. Specifically, this would mean:

• A significant military operation involving ground forces, armor, and artillery

• On a section of the Ukraine-Russia or Ukraine-Belarus border that has not seen active combat operations in the 3 months prior

• The operation must be confirmed by multiple credible sources (major news organizations, military analysts, or official government statements)

This market resolves to NO if:

• No new major offensive is launched by March 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET

• Russia only intensifies operations on existing active fronts

• Small-scale cross-border raids or artillery exchanges occur without a full-scale offensive

Considerations

The situation remains fluid, and Russia's military strategy may be influenced by:

• Developments in the ongoing conflict in eastern Ukraine

• International diplomatic pressure and sanctions

• Seasonal weather conditions affecting military mobility

• Internal Russian political considerations

• Ukrainian counter-offensive operations