Sam Altman will return to OpenAI by the end of 2024
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694k
resolved Nov 22
Resolved
YES

Not restricted to CEO, but any role within the company

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predicted YES

this market is resolved officially for all the pedants who were not satisfied with “in principle”

“looking forward to returning” meaning not yet returned https://x.com/sama/status/1727207458324848883

“agreement in principle […] collaborating to figure out the details” https://x.com/openai/status/1727206187077370115

No other announcements. Resolving to YES is premature, especially when the end of 2024 is super far away. There is no rush to resolve.

predicted NO

Would you be willing to unresolve this market (perhaps with mod help)? Nothing is confirmed by an agreement "in principle", and I personally think there's a good chance that it doesn't go through! (And definitely that it's premature to have resolved the market?)

@james I agree. However creators can have their own interpretations, I do wish it's explicitly clarified before resolution.

Here's my market on the same that's still open, and in fact shows less than 90% chance!

predicted YES

@james It was not premature. Refer to the twitter acocunt of Brockman, Sutskever, Murati, and OpenAI itself.

predicted NO

@NealShrestha58d3 Has there been any tweet confirming it other than ‘in principle’?

predicted NO

@NealShrestha58d3 we have all been reading the same news - which says that there has been an "in principle" agreement that they will re-appoint Sam CEO, but we have not yet gotten confirmation that they've fleshed out the details and actually appointed him.

predicted YES

The Brockman tweets are pretty compelling, though I agree this is fuzzy.

predicted NO

@Joshua They're compelling that Brockman returned!

predicted NO

@chrisjbillington actually also he may never have formally resigned, he announced he was resigning, I'm not sure what makes it official or if he ever did it.

@NealShrestha58d3 It is premature. There is no official announcement. OpenAI said “agreement in principle” and Sam said looking forward to rejoining.

predicted YES

@topanter fortunately if the market is misresolved, it can be reresolved

predicted YES

Doubled my mana stack :)

predicted NO

@marcogiglio Congrats, great trading

predicted YES

Sounds like Sam is already CEO?

predicted YES

If you were gonna resolve based on the announcement, wish you'd told us so I could have brought it up to 100% 😅

@Joshua My b

predicted YES

@NealShrestha58d3 What a crazy market to have as your first one! Welcome to manifold!

predicted YES

@Joshua Thank you very much :)

Other similar markets haven’t resolved yet, I’m not aware of this being officially confirmed?

predicted YES

@TheBayesian they said "in principle" and sam / microsoft etc. have confirmed, meaning they agreed to bring sam but they're just trying to agree on the final board members and other details

predicted NO

@MichaelTrazzi I mean, you could say the same about Sam joining Microsoft, but that didn't happen.

predicted YES

Resolve as YES

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