Will the National Party form a government following the next New Zealand general election? | Manifold

Will the National Party form a government following the next New Zealand general election?

24

closes Oct 14

86%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Close date updated to 2023-10-14 7:00 pm

Get Ṁ500 play money

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benjsmithpredicts YES

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/event/29552620/multi-market?marketIds=1.204897037

benjsmithbought Ṁ30 of YES

New Zealand First have polled 4.1% and 5% in July. If they get in to Parliament they will likely support a National govt. This will be a challenge for the Left coalition because they would have to find 51% of seats without the 7 or so NZF would have. Even without NZF, National's odds are looking good at around 60%, so I think taking into account the probability NZF gets in, their odds are now very good.

Manifold in the WildBot

Will the National Party form a government following the next New Zealand general election?, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot filled limit order Ṁ17/Ṁ39 NO at 86% (cancelled) 🤖

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Michael Little filled limit order Ṁ500/Ṁ500 YES at 89%

Julian Lees bought Ṁ45 YES from 78% to 80%

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benjsmith bought Ṁ30 YES from 64% to 67%

Julian Lees bought Ṁ10 YES from 63% to 64%

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AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ29/Ṁ100 NO at 59% (cancelled) 🤖

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cos created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 67% (cancelled)

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Caleb Withers bought Ṁ15 NO from 63% to 59%

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