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I thought I posted this comment before, but evidently not:

There’s a possibility they’ll extend my provisional period, rather than confirm candidacy. In that case “year” will be even more of a misnomer but this market will resolve based on whether I complete that extra period and am confirmed as a PhD candidate.

The confirmation review meeting is scheduled for the 4th, and both of my supervisors have recommended confirmation.

did you

@jacksonpolack The process is still ongoing. Turns out the deadline is 13 months after you start - I’ll adjust this market accordingly

"Will I complete my provisional PhD year?"