Will David Tennant be the next Doctor Who?
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Ṁ27kresolved Oct 30
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Resolves YES if Jodie Whittaker regenerates (or otherwise changes) into David Tennant, otherwise NO.
Close date updated to 2022-10-24 7:30 am
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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@TheJurgenator Finally someone agrees with me! I've already made both of those points in previous comments, so I expect the market's going to go right back to where it was - in fact, it's gone down while I wrote this very comment!
@NcyRocks Yeah, Doctor Who has taken a bit of a hit during Chibnall's run. Tennant returning to the main role as the next incarnation could revive the show and then lead onto Ncuti's era.
Wow, after sharing my reasoning the market updated *downwards*! Are people that unconvinced? We've seen David Tennant filming Doctor Who alone with Donna at a point later in her timeline than The End of Time, with a new outfit & sonic screwdriver - surely that's at least pretty good evidence!
Didn't expect to stake this much credibility just on Doctor Who...
@NcyRocks I interpret this as either
a) your reasoning was evidence in favor of YES, but it wasn't as convincing as they expected given that you were betting at 90% - then it is rational to update downward
b) the market's visibility increased due to the comments and betting, drawing more traders. If we assume that your probability estimate is higher than average, and that you were a significant proportion of the money in this market, then bringing in more traders = averaging you with more others = pulling the market's average down. Also it temporarily increases volatility - seems like there's been a lot of up and down recently.
For me, I'm just generally _very_ unconfident in most predictions about future plotlines in fiction - the base rate of predictions I've seen turning out accurate seems quite low. It would be fun if you're proven right though!
@jack Good points. And fair enough re. lack of confidence in predictions - like I said, if I didn't know better I'd bet against me too.
@NcyRocks Didn't Tennant return for the 50th anniversary special simply by having him meet up with the modern cast via time travel? And then they had them forget their memories of the whole thing to prevent any continuity issues. Seems like the same mechanism could be used here.
Davies suggested a few possibilities along those lines in the announcement https://www.bbc.co.uk/mediacentre/2022/doctor-who-david-tennant-and-catherine-tate-return "Maybe this is a missing story. Or a parallel world. Or a dream, or a trick, or a flashback. " Though having read that, it makes me think it's more likely that those _aren't_ what's actually going to happen. Still, 88% feels too high to me.
@jack Yeah, that did happen with the 50th anniversary, and Tennant filmed with his old outfit & TARDIS & sonic screwdriver, but he's been filming with a new outfit & sonic & Jodie Whittaker's TARDIS. And he met up with the (then) current Doctor, whereas no other Doctor has publicly filmed Doctor Who recently - I don't think Ncuti Gatwa's filmed anything at all. Also, he's meeting Donna in a way that has to have happened after his Doctor's regeneration.
That rules out missing stories & flashbacks. Parallel worlds and dreams would make enough in-universe sense but they're too complicated for a scheme to win back casual viewers. I guess it could be a trick, but I can't think what kind.
At least two leakers that correctly predicted other things as well as Tennant being the next Doctor, and nothing else squares with the set photos.
@jack I mean, in general, if I saw one fan (who also created the market in the first place) betting thousands of M$ alone against tens of others on their pet fan theory, I'd bet against them too. I just can't imagine anything else happening. I guess it'll all be settled soon enough?
@NcyRocks Interesting, that does increase my probability here. I think it's reasonably likely, but I could still imagine some other ways for Tennant to return consistent with what we've seen
@NcyRocks Parallel universe seems like a good contender. Or clones (another concept that we've seen before). Or it is Ten and he had to borrow a bunch of things from his future self.
@jack The episode taking place in a parallel universe would be kind of disorienting for new viewers, whereas if it's in the usual Whoniverse following a Doctor from a parallel universe (the Metacrisis Doctor from Journey's End, maybe) then you have to wonder where our Doctor is (and in the case of the Metacrisis, where Rose is). For Ten to make sense his memories would have to be wiped before The End of Time, and I don't see RTD bringing back Ten and Donna and then erasing it like that.
You could be right, I do think stuff like this has a ~10% chance of happening, but no other explanation makes sense to me.
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