Will David Tennant be the next Doctor Who?
Basic
103
Ṁ27k
resolved Oct 30
Resolved
YES

Resolves YES if Jodie Whittaker regenerates (or otherwise changes) into David Tennant, otherwise NO.

Close date updated to 2022-10-24 7:30 am

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Ṁ1,000
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predicted YES

@NcyRocks [dancing triumphantly to Rasputin]

predicted NO

why the fuck

This seems like one of the most insane/intense markets yet, bravo lmao.
Kinda wish I had time to have a clue what wtf going on here, alas.

predicted NO

Fuck me

predicted NO

Same

predicted YES

It just occurred to me that I should maybe wait a bit to resolve this, for spoiler reasons. Does anyone with an investment in this market object to my resolving it a week after the special airs?

predicted YES

Assuming that we get a clear answer, which I'm not sure of!

predicted NO

@NcyRocks It should close before it airs, but it's fine if you wait to resolve it.

predicted YES
Will David Tennant be the next Doctor Who?

"Will David Tennant be the next Doctor Who?"

predicted YES

"the next Doctor Who"

the next Doctor Who
predicted YES

"100 people betting on David Tennant"

100 people betting on David Tennant

ALLONS-Y

predicted YES

@1941159478 Interesting! Hadn't seen that.

I have seen several filming of Doctor Who with only Tennant, none of Gatwa. Also, there is a narrative reason for how it could happen. During his run, after he got blasted by a Dalek and was forced to regenerate, he instead regenerated into the same body (known as the Meta-Crisis Doctor or TenToo).
predicted YES
@TheJurgenator Finally someone agrees with me! I've already made both of those points in previous comments, so I expect the market's going to go right back to where it was - in fact, it's gone down while I wrote this very comment!
predicted YES
Looks like I actually made the TenToo point in a rant that I deleted from the description, where I also pointed out that the Ncuti Gatwa announcement was weirdly vague and seemed to carefully avoid implying that Jodie would regenerate into him.
predicted YES
@NcyRocks Yeah, Doctor Who has taken a bit of a hit during Chibnall's run. Tennant returning to the main role as the next incarnation could revive the show and then lead onto Ncuti's era.
predicted YES
Wow, after sharing my reasoning the market updated *downwards*! Are people that unconvinced? We've seen David Tennant filming Doctor Who alone with Donna at a point later in her timeline than The End of Time, with a new outfit & sonic screwdriver - surely that's at least pretty good evidence! Didn't expect to stake this much credibility just on Doctor Who...
predicted NO
@NcyRocks I interpret this as either a) your reasoning was evidence in favor of YES, but it wasn't as convincing as they expected given that you were betting at 90% - then it is rational to update downward b) the market's visibility increased due to the comments and betting, drawing more traders. If we assume that your probability estimate is higher than average, and that you were a significant proportion of the money in this market, then bringing in more traders = averaging you with more others = pulling the market's average down. Also it temporarily increases volatility - seems like there's been a lot of up and down recently. For me, I'm just generally _very_ unconfident in most predictions about future plotlines in fiction - the base rate of predictions I've seen turning out accurate seems quite low. It would be fun if you're proven right though!
predicted YES
@jack Good points. And fair enough re. lack of confidence in predictions - like I said, if I didn't know better I'd bet against me too.
predicted YES
I'm around 90% - I don't see how else David Tennant could be coming back. I'm evidently the only one - if I sold all my YES this would be down to 2%! - but I'd be interested to hear why others think this is unlikely.
@NcyRocks Didn't Tennant return for the 50th anniversary special simply by having him meet up with the modern cast via time travel? And then they had them forget their memories of the whole thing to prevent any continuity issues. Seems like the same mechanism could be used here. Davies suggested a few possibilities along those lines in the announcement https://www.bbc.co.uk/mediacentre/2022/doctor-who-david-tennant-and-catherine-tate-return "Maybe this is a missing story. Or a parallel world. Or a dream, or a trick, or a flashback. " Though having read that, it makes me think it's more likely that those _aren't_ what's actually going to happen. Still, 88% feels too high to me.
predicted YES
@jack Yeah, that did happen with the 50th anniversary, and Tennant filmed with his old outfit & TARDIS & sonic screwdriver, but he's been filming with a new outfit & sonic & Jodie Whittaker's TARDIS. And he met up with the (then) current Doctor, whereas no other Doctor has publicly filmed Doctor Who recently - I don't think Ncuti Gatwa's filmed anything at all. Also, he's meeting Donna in a way that has to have happened after his Doctor's regeneration. That rules out missing stories & flashbacks. Parallel worlds and dreams would make enough in-universe sense but they're too complicated for a scheme to win back casual viewers. I guess it could be a trick, but I can't think what kind. At least two leakers that correctly predicted other things as well as Tennant being the next Doctor, and nothing else squares with the set photos.
predicted YES
@jack I mean, in general, if I saw one fan (who also created the market in the first place) betting thousands of M$ alone against tens of others on their pet fan theory, I'd bet against them too. I just can't imagine anything else happening. I guess it'll all be settled soon enough?
predicted NO
@NcyRocks Interesting, that does increase my probability here. I think it's reasonably likely, but I could still imagine some other ways for Tennant to return consistent with what we've seen
predicted YES
@jack Such as?
predicted NO
@NcyRocks Parallel universe seems like a good contender. Or clones (another concept that we've seen before). Or it is Ten and he had to borrow a bunch of things from his future self.
predicted YES
@jack The episode taking place in a parallel universe would be kind of disorienting for new viewers, whereas if it's in the usual Whoniverse following a Doctor from a parallel universe (the Metacrisis Doctor from Journey's End, maybe) then you have to wonder where our Doctor is (and in the case of the Metacrisis, where Rose is). For Ten to make sense his memories would have to be wiped before The End of Time, and I don't see RTD bringing back Ten and Donna and then erasing it like that. You could be right, I do think stuff like this has a ~10% chance of happening, but no other explanation makes sense to me.

@NcyRocks Congrats on calling this! Well deserved profits haha

predicted YES

@jack Got mine! ☺

Looking back at my trades, I think my own prediction was about 75% and I think that was still an ok prediction in retrospect, but apparently I was underconfident and didn't buy the market up when it was super low. I could have made a lot more!

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