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Will Artemis II launch before 2026?

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Will Artemis III launch before 2027?

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Will NASA’s Artemis 2 mission be launched successfully before January 1st, 2026?

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Will Artemis 3 not be delayed, and be successful?

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Will NASA's Artemis program land astronauts on the moon by the end of 2025?

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Jupiter moon lander launched by end of 2028?

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Not even according to the optimistic NASA schedule

I'd buy this down to 1% but it takes too long to get my money back

@Mqrius FWIW, half of an investment returns via loans every 34 days or so. It takes about 8 months to get 99% back.

Yeah but I'm not rich enough yet, so my time value of Mana is quite high, and the returns on this market are quite low because it's already at 20%.

Right now it seems like NASA is struggling to launch more than 1 SLS every two years; this market would require NASA to launch four in the next six years. (Unless NASA starts naming non-SLS missions using the "Artemis" branding.) It would seem crazy for NASA to keep launching missions around the moon (like Artemis II) if they don't have a lander, spacesuits, etc, gateway components, etc, ready on time. Since markets are pessmistic about the chances of earlier Artemis missions happening on time, it seems doubly unlikely that Artemis V will happen on time.