Will Artemis V launch by the end of 2028?
13
แน€2.1k
2028
3%
chance

Not necessarily successfully. An official delay or cancellation resolves NO.

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Not even according to the optimistic NASA schedule

I'd buy this down to 1% but it takes too long to get my money back

@Mqrius FWIW, half of an investment returns via loans every 34 days or so. It takes about 8 months to get 99% back.

Yeah but I'm not rich enough yet, so my time value of Mana is quite high, and the returns on this market are quite low because it's already at 20%.

Right now it seems like NASA is struggling to launch more than 1 SLS every two years; this market would require NASA to launch four in the next six years. (Unless NASA starts naming non-SLS missions using the "Artemis" branding.) It would seem crazy for NASA to keep launching missions around the moon (like Artemis II) if they don't have a lander, spacesuits, etc, gateway components, etc, ready on time. Since markets are pessmistic about the chances of earlier Artemis missions happening on time, it seems doubly unlikely that Artemis V will happen on time.

"Will Artemis V launch by the end of 2028?"

Will Artemis V launch by the end of 2028?