If Trump runs as a third-party candidate, will he drop out before Election Day?
10
1kṀ257resolved Nov 6
Resolved
N/A1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
A third-party Trump run would likely split the Republican vote like in 1912, which seems like it might horrify Trump enough to overcome his ego.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Sort by:
@JonathanMast He could be OK with splitting the vote at first because he thinks he has a chance to win, and then he could learn that he has no chance to win from polls or whatever.
People are also trading
Related questions
Will Trump say he is candidate for a third term as president during the year of 2028?
26% chance
Will Trump participate in an election for a third term?
17% chance
Will Donald Trump either serve a third term or run for U.S. President in an election held after 2028?
10% chance
Conditional on Trump running for a third term, will he win?
28% chance