"We're realistic."
Resolves YES if 2084 is the first year in which an openly gay US President is elected.
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The "first" part of "first elected" is significant here- it means only one election can qualify.
There being quite a lot of possible elections where this can occur means even conditional on the first openly gay US president happening in roughly that length of time, we'd have say 2068, 2072, 2076, 2080, 2084, and 2088 where it could occur and a resultingly low probability on 2084 in particular.
Add more uncertainty about whether this does take that long, and I think this ought to be <10%. I'd push it down to there if I didn't want to keep my money for sooner-resolving markets.
@jbeshir I think it could be the second openly gay president if they are running for election for the first time, such that the election will be the one where they are first elected.
@MartinRandall Yeah, I suppose so. I guess that could mean an arbitrarily large amount of gay Presidents before the first one was elected, if they kept appointing gay Vice Presidents and then resigning!
@NcyRocks Also Trump is a white man who was first elected in 2016, even though he's not the first white man to be elected.
@MartinRandall Okay yeah, I guess you could argue that "a white man was first elected President in 2016". I've updated the description to exclude that case.
@extent_of_foxes ooh, or what if the concept of sexual orientation as identity disappears entirely by that time?
@MattP Even if that's the case, presumably sexual orientations would still exist. I don't think that'd affect resolution.