Will the UK have more than 20,000 person-days of blackouts before April 2023?
resolved May 5
Resolved as

To the best of my estimation, will there have been 20,000 or more person-days of blackouts before April. ie 480,000 person hours? ie number of people affected * hours affected > 480,000

Close date updated to 2023-03-31 11:59 pm

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How should this resolve. I have ideas but I want to hear yours.

@NathanpmYoung there were massive blackouts in uk

@DuSusisu As someone who lives in the UK, this was not the case. But there may have been 20,000 person days. it was a dumb market because I didn't have a good way to know.

Peak oil. World is fucked

bought Ṁ30 of YES

just running the numbers quickly:

- there are ~220 days between this market's open and close date, so 5280 hours

- this means there would need to be about 90 people affected by blackouts in any given hour

I would guess this tends to be the case even under normal circumstances? Just looking at this map of the shoutheast for instance there are over 90 "customers affected" right now (and a customer is probably a household, so multiple people): https://www.ukpowernetworks.co.uk/power-cut/map?incidentid=INCD-350641-Z

predicted YES

@WilliamHoward unless you're applying a stricter definition of blackouts?

predicted NO

Hi @NathanpmYoung , could you please explain why this market closes so long before the resolution date? I'm happy with my bet either way; just curious.

predicted YES

@JohnRoxton My error

bought Ṁ20 of YES

20k person-days = 480k person-hours. I can easily imagine cumulative blackouts this winter of this size, given the current energy situation.