Will the UK decrease its aid spending commitment before the next election? | Manifold

Will the UK decrease its aid spending commitment before the next election?

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UK policies by the next election

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What is this?

What is Manifold?

Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.

Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.

Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.

Are our predictions accurate?

Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.

In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.

Why use play money?

Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.

Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.

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Will the UK increase the personal income tax rate before 2026?

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Will the UK's Ease Of Doing Business score rise above 83.8 before the next UK General Election?

Will the UK Government reduce its current Bitcoin holdings before the next general election?

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Will the UK Government have spent more than £50 Bn (inflation-adjusted from sep 22) capping electricity bills by the next election?

Will the UK Government raise corporation tax by more than 1pp compared to expected levels before the next election? (Including by stealth raises)

Will there be a huge increase in UK housebuilding before 2030? What is the political result at the next election?

What is this?

What is Manifold?

Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.

Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.

Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.

Are our predictions accurate?

Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.

In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.

Why use play money?

Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.

Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.

Related questions

2x2: Will Labour get a majority, Will UK aid be at or above the 0.6% of GNI by the end of the Parliament?

Will the UK Government reduce its current Bitcoin holdings before the next general election?

In the UK, will the tax burden on any decile increase by more than 1pp against what was expected, before the next election?

Will the UK give Ukraine more than $10Bn (in cash, not including imports) before the next election?

Will the UK increase the personal income tax rate before 2026?

Will the UK Government have spent more than £50 Bn (inflation-adjusted from sep 22) capping electricity bills by the next election?

There will be significant above trend public spending in the UK before 2026

Will the UK Government raise corporation tax by more than 1pp compared to expected levels before the next election? (Including by stealth raises)

Will the UK's Ease Of Doing Business score rise above 83.8 before the next UK General Election?

Will there be a huge increase in UK housebuilding before 2030? What is the political result at the next election?

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