Will GiveWell recommend a grant to support cash transfers before 2027?

This question resolves Yes if GiveWell recommends a grant to support cash transfers.

This question will resolve No otherwise.

This question resolves according to GiveWell's spreadsheet here https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1TG7WRU85p1SEjir-5qvIEg4kVG9a4Lnzdgwcub8aKSs/edit#gid=0 or equivalent or a public statement.

Nathan reserves the right to edit this question within the spirit of the question to make the information more useful to GiveWell in the first 3 months, though will pay anyone who feels they lost out. After that, he will only clarify resolution cases.

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cos avatar
cosbought Ṁ1 of YES

They've done it before; they'll do it again!

cos avatar
cospredicted YES at 64%

That spreadsheet shows that they're actively supporting at least one (conditional) cash transfer program already.

Lorenzo avatar
Lorenzobought Ṁ10 of YES

Does this include conditional cash transfers (e.g. New Incentives)?

NathanpmYoung avatar
Nathan Young

@Lorenzo Should it? What are they conditional on? Which row of that spreadsheet would they go under?

Lorenzo avatar
Lorenzopredicted YES at 59%

@NathanpmYoung New Incentives (newincentives.org) runs a conditional cash transfer (CCT) program ... seeks to increase uptake of routine immunizations through cash transfers ... makes cash transfers conditional on infants receiving vaccines. [They also do other stuff, but CCT seems a big part of what they do.]

I would guess row 3 in the sheet? "Conditional cash transfers to increase infant vaccination as run by New Incentives"