Will GiveWell recommend a grant to support cash transfers before 2027? | Manifold Markets

resolved Dec 18

GiveWell Effective Altruism

Will GiveWell recommend a grant to support cash transfers before 2027?

Resolved

N/A

1D

1W

1M

ALL

This question resolves Yes if GiveWell recommends a grant to support cash transfers.

This question will resolve No otherwise.

This question resolves according to GiveWell's spreadsheet here https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1TG7WRU85p1SEjir-5qvIEg4kVG9a4Lnzdgwcub8aKSs/edit#gid=0 or equivalent or a public statement.

Nathan reserves the right to edit this question within the spirit of the question to make the information more useful to GiveWell in the first 3 months, though will pay anyone who feels they lost out. After that, he will only clarify resolution cases.

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cosbought Ṁ1 of YES

They've done it before; they'll do it again!

cospredicted YES at 64%

That spreadsheet shows that they're actively supporting at least one (conditional) cash transfer program already.

Lorenzobought Ṁ10 of YES

Does this include conditional cash transfers (e.g. New Incentives)?

@Lorenzo Should it? What are they conditional on? Which row of that spreadsheet would they go under?

Lorenzopredicted YES at 59%

@NathanpmYoung New Incentives (newincentives.org) runs a conditional cash transfer (CCT) program ... seeks to increase uptake of routine immunizations through cash transfers ... makes cash transfers conditional on infants receiving vaccines. [They also do other stuff, but CCT seems a big part of what they do.]

I would guess row 3 in the sheet? "Conditional cash transfers to increase infant vaccination as run by New Incentives"

Paul Hobbs sold Ṁ9 YES from 67% to 66%

Paul Hobbs bought Ṁ10 YES from 66% to 67%

Kathryn O'Rourke bought Ṁ10 YES from 65% to 66%

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ2 NO at 99.0% (cancelled)

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VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ1 YES at 4% (cancelled)

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