Seems like it is essentially GiveWell's entire raison d'etre to never recommend cash transfers, in the sense that they are constantly trying to research and investigate to build a list of charitable opportunities that perform better than cash transfers. So, it seems like this could only happen if:
- Givewell becomes very pessimistic about many different categories of charity simultaneously
- They become absolutely FLOODED with donations (much moreso than at any point in the past, where they lowered their bar to around 5x cash transfers)
- They become convinced that cash transfers are actually 5x-10x better than they previously thought.
- Cash transfers don't actually meet their bar, but for some reason they recommend them anyways?? Perhaps helping get a new organization off the ground, in the hopes that it will eventually scale and become a top charity?
Neither of these seem likely enough that the sum of their probabilities supports this market.