This question resolves positively if GiveWell gives a grant or publishes a recommendation that grants be given to unconditional cash transfers on or before December 31, 2026. Or if a charity undertaking the same work is designated a "Top Charity" or a recipient of "All Funds" before the deadline. This resolves according to a statement from GiveWell or a credible news organisation.

It resolves "No" otherwise.

The most likely resolution mechanism is that GiveWell writes "yes" in the column "Have we recommended one or more grants to support this program?" in the “Cash transfers” row of the GiveWell program reviews spreadsheet (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1TG7WRU85p1SEjir-5qvIEg4kVG9a4Lnzdgwcub8aKSs/edit#gid=0) or a spreadsheet that supersedes it.

The cash tranfers must be unconditional in the sense that they are given regardless of other outcomes. However ther benefits may be unrelated. The money must be given to primarily support unconditional cash transfers (as opposed to an organsation that primarily does other work).