Will GiveWell fund Vouchers for water treatment by 1st January 2027?
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resolved Aug 21
Resolved
YES

This question resolves positively if GiveWell gives a grant or publishes a recommendation that grants be given to fund Vouchers for water treatment on or before December 31, 2026. Or if a charity undertaking the same work is designated a "Top Charity" or a recipient of "All Funds" before the deadline. This resolves according to a statement from GiveWell or a credible news organisation.

 

It resolves "No" otherwise.

 

The most likely resolution mechanism is that GiveWell writes "yes" in the column "Have we recommended one or more grants to support this program?" in the “Vouchers for water treatment” row of the GiveWell program reviews spreadsheet (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1TG7WRU85p1SEjir-5qvIEg4kVG9a4Lnzdgwcub8aKSs/edit#gid=0) or a spreadsheet that supersedes it.

 

N.B. Vouchers can obviously be distributed for the purpose of water treatment or other purposes. The funds must go towards water treatment, not a charity that largely does other work.

-- Note --

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-- Background --

GiveWell has recommended grants to over 10 charities over the years. They are currently investigating 12 charity areas with other areas of research in the pipeline including Vouchers for water treatment.

 

The following is taken directly from GiveWell’s explanation of the topic:

“Chlorination is a well-established means of disinfecting drinking water. When chlorine is added to water, it reacts with organic matter, inactivating microorganisms such as viruses and bacteria. Offering vouchers for free bottles of chlorine treatment could increase use among households who might otherwise not use chlorine.

We spoke with the lead researcher of two randomized controlled trials that evaluated this program, and we conducted a light review to learn more about funding opportunities and any evidence identifying contexts where this specific approach to water treatment might be most applicable. We did not identify any existing funding opportunities and are uncertain about the contexts in which this intervention would be preferable to other ways of promoting chlorination.

We plan to revisit this program in 2022. While we think chlorination vouchers are promising, we are currently prioritizing other water chlorination programs that we think have more immediate funding opportunities. We expect that our investigation of these programs will provide information about what opportunities are available to fund chlorination vouchers and where”

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predicted YES

Thanks all

@NathanYoung Seems pretty clear as per @DismalScientist's comment below. They've recommended grants and published something saying so. Resolve please?

bought Ṁ500 of YES
predicted YES

I believe this should resolve yes based on the "Yes, we recommend a grant to Development Innovation Lab in January 2023 (grant page forthcoming)." in the Chlorine vouchers row of the table at this link https://www.givewell.org/research/research-on-programs

bought Ṁ1,700 of YES
sold Ṁ10 of YES

One of the Change Our Mind Contest Winners was on water treatment intervnetions. There estimate for dispensers was 5.7 times as effective as cash (down from 7.4) so I don't think this will affect GiveWell's eagerness to fund vouchers much. https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/6cJM2pWH8dz9TnBRy/an-examination-of-givewell-s-water-quality-intervention-cost

predicted YES

Estimated a 24% base rate among programs GiveWell listed in 2017 but had not given a grant too yet (https://www.givewell.org/research/intervention-reports/august-2017-version)

bought Ṁ300 of NO

@DismalScientist though the funding note here https://docs.google.com/document/d/18ukzvxXMo-uK1EU-u9AA6MlM9v14OnH484RThmEfyDM/edit seems to imply that they would fund if there were a funding opportunity.

@DismalScientist How might you know whether there be that opportunity?