Will Cari Tuna be found guilty of fraud before 2024?
Will Cari Tuna be found guilty of fraud before 2024?
7
150Ṁ1164resolved Nov 14
Resolved
N/A1H
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This resolves "Yes" if the named individual is found guilty in court.
If there is no court judgement but I am 99% confident that they have done fraud (eg credible accusations with evidence from credible sources). There will be an open survey with at least the options "Yes" and "Not enough information" . If 70% of people answer "Yes" then this market will resolve "Yes". This survey cannot be repeated for 3 months.
If the market doesn't resolve "Yes", it resolves "No" at close date.
There are markets about a range of public figures here: https://manifold.markets/group/scandal-markets
Nov 14, 2:18pm: Will Cari Tuna be responsible for a fraud scandal before 2024? → Will Cari Tuna be found guilty of fraud before 2024?
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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