Will Bluesky have at least at least 10% of Twitter's then Daily Active Users in 2023?

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resolved Jan 15

Resolved

ALL

This market resolves YES, if, after it is launched:

Bluesky's DAU's are at least as high 10% in Twitter's DAU's

In the event DAU stats are not available, any reasonable proxy thereof (MAU's for instance) will be used instead.

These will be as reported by credible soruces or some kind of reliable, neutral third party app statistics site.

Thanks @PatrickDelaney for the help.

X (Twitter)

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📢Resolved to NO : All sources found that are not paywalled show Bluesky between 500k-600k DAU (Wiki & Statista). Twitter searches show anywhere from 230-270m (Statista, and any source google may provide that is credible).

How will you determine the count of each platform?

@PatrickDelaney yeah I dunno. Any suggestions?

@NathanpmYoung "As reported by X, Y, Z, news agency" ... or some kind of reliable, neutral third party app statistics site that can't simply be paid off to make something up.

@PatrickDelaney I did some searching and there seem to be tons of sites reporting similar figures on Twitter, however I have never heard of those sites. I'm sure you could trace how they are getting their stats or email the researcher. The same probably exists for Bluesky.