Will AIs/LLMs be considered strongly averse to genocide/slavery in a twitter poll in Jan 2027?
Will AIs/LLMs be considered strongly averse to genocide/slavery in a twitter poll in Jan 2027?
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110Ṁ402027
75%
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Would you say, on balance that LLMs are currently averse to slavery/genocide? Do they almost always find it repulsive as an option when making choices about actions, even if prompted otherwise. This includes countermeasures by AI firms.
If I rerun this poll in Early 2027 will the yesses outnumber the Nos?
https://twitter.com/NathanpmYoung/status/1653385633392480257?s=20
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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