This isn't to say it's only frances, but according to the res criteria it resolves to all the people we know on closing. Currently that's only france, so that's how it resolves.

The people selling Julian are clearly part of a hedge fund >:(

Julian is going to the moon

@SalahKouhen (spoiler) the official information was that he’s note involved with Qualy

@ms thanks haha, like i'd buy that! (yeah I just felt this site had the potential to get a bit addictive so wanted to get rid of all my fake money in a silly way :D)

@DanielFilan owO

So currently this market is broken because despite us knowing it's at least 2 people, frances is at 67%. I guess that's because I implied that the frances voters would get 100% of the money if I only found out 1 person.

Should I make a new, properly formulated market or change this one?

@NathanpmYoung New market

@NathanpmYoung Change this one

@NathanpmYoung I'm pretty strongly against changing this market. I think creating a new market gives almost all of the benefits without screwing over a bunch of people who traded on this market for the past 4 months.

@NathanpmYoung I don't follow - why not resolve this one such that frances voters get 100% if you only found 1 person?

I was given three guesses

Here are a bunch of conditional markets https://manifold.markets/group/qualy-the-lightbulb (please add more)

https://twitter.com/QualyThe/status/1567967324925198345

@arae This is undoubtedly a joke.

@arae https://twitter.com/QualyThe/status/1574181476953907201

@finnhambly I mean that you can make seperate markets for each individual if you want to. You're right that tha'ts better.

@NathanpmYoung oh, got you! I'm not sure I'm actually that invested hahaha

Plus, I think there is still a strong enough incentive to bet on others here (since they're all such low percentages) so you should get a good idea of who it is if someone has the info :)

I'm starting to wonder if 'sentient lightbulb' is the right answer after all...

I was originally thinking 70% probability on one person is way too high, but I think @trevor's evidence is pretty good. 95% is overconfident IMO but the current market prediction of 70% seems fair

@DanielFilan https://twitter.com/moskov/status/1570480001866399745?s=20&t=KHol-atkS75czf0ffAHBxg

I have no idea who QualyThe is, but this market has informed me of many interesting people I didn't know about!

@PaulCrowley unbelievable to me that I'm up to 0.3%. In my life I have never produced one "banger".

@finnhambly Damn, got to read those quotation marks more carefully next time. Thank you!

@TobiasHaeberli The resolution criteria say:

if it is Anna and Sarbjit the answers are “Anna" and "Sarbjit".

and combination answers will not resolve positively

@JeroenWillems I'm confused. Why did this tweet make people bet on Julian Hazell and Frances Lorenz separately but not on them being Qualy together? Am I missing something about how this will be resolved?