Daniel Filan answered

Frances Lorenz

68%

Manifold Markets answered

Sentient Lightbulb

13%

Jonny Spicer answered

Julian Hazell

11%

Ivan Navarro answered

Rob Wiblin

1.8%

Nathan Young answered

We never find the second person

1.2%

Nathan Young answered

Kirsten (@Kirsten3531)

0.8%

Nathan Young answered

Chris Lloyd

0.7%

Jeroen Willems answered

Julian Hazell & Frances Lorenz

0.7%

Nathan Young answered

@TetraspaceWest

0.3%

Jeroen Willems answered

Alex Lawsen

0.3%

Paul Crowley answered

Linchuan Zhang

0.3%

Tetraspace answered

Paul Crowley

0.2%

Jeroen Willems answered

Rafael Ruiz

0.2%

Andrew G answered

Dustin Moskovitz

0.2%

Jeroen Willems answered

Tom Lieberum

0.1%

Jeroen Willems answered

Chana Messinger

0.1%

Finn Hambly answered

Henry Sleight

0.1%

Finn Hambly answered

Trevor Levin

0.1%

Finn Hambly answered

Ollie Base

0.1%

Nathan Young answered

Fin Moorhouse

0.1%

Nathan Young answered

@QualyThe

0.1%

Jeroen Willems answered

Max Alexander

0.1%

Daniel Filan answered

stephen clare

0.1%

Jeroen Willems answered

@CineraVerinia

0.1%

Nathan Young answered

Stefan Schubert

0.1%

Jeroen Willems answered

Michael Plant

0.1%

Jeroen Willems answered

@PradyuPrasad

0.1%

Jeroen Willems answered

@metakuna

0.1%

Jeroen Willems answered

@ohwizenedtortle

0.1%

Jeroen Willems answered

Jessica Wen

0.1%

Jeroen Willems answered

@TomTospace

0.1%

Nathan Young answered

Justin Trudeau

0.0%

Kaden Culp answered

Nathan Young

0.0%

Jeroen Willems answered

Hayden Wilkinson

0.0%

Jeroen Willems answered

Nathan Barnard

0.0%

Nathan Young answered

Habiba Islam

0.0%

Jeroen Willems answered

Elias @reconfigurthing

0.0%

Sinclair Chen answered

Dony

0.0%

Jeroen Willems answered

GPT-3

0.0%

Jeroen Willems answered

William MacAskill

0.0%

Tom Shlomi answered

@sympatheticopp

0.0%

Tom Shlomi answered

@sudan_shoe

0.0%

Tom Shlomi answered

@JacquesThibs

0.0%

Tom Shlomi answered

Daniel Eth

0.0%

Tom Shlomi answered

@_mvdm

0.0%

Tom Shlomi answered

@_revoluzia_

0.0%

Tom Shlomi answered

Miranda Zhang

0.0%

Tom Shlomi answered

Evie Cottrell

0.0%

Tom Shlomi answered

Aaron Bergman

0.0%

Daniel Filan answered

Ben Garfinkel

0.0%

Add your answer

Manifold Markets answered

Sentient Lightbulb

Ivan Navarro answered

Rob Wiblin

Nathan Young answered

We never find the second person

Nathan Young answered

Kirsten (@Kirsten3531)

Nathan Young answered

Chris Lloyd

Jeroen Willems answered

Julian Hazell & Frances Lorenz

@JeroenWillems if you comment i’ll pay you because I changed the rules

0

Jeroen Willems answered

Alex Lawsen

Paul Crowley answered

Linchuan Zhang

Jeroen Willems answered

Rafael Ruiz

Andrew G answered

Dustin Moskovitz

Jeroen Willems answered

Tom Lieberum

Jeroen Willems answered

Chana Messinger

Finn Hambly answered

Henry Sleight

Finn Hambly answered

Trevor Levin

Finn Hambly answered

Ollie Base

Nathan Young answered

Fin Moorhouse

Nathan Young answered

Jeroen Willems answered

Max Alexander

Daniel Filan answered

stephen clare

Nathan Young answered

Stefan Schubert

Jeroen Willems answered

Michael Plant

Jeroen Willems answered

Jeroen Willems answered

Jessica Wen

Jeroen Willems answered

Nathan Young answered

Justin Trudeau

Kaden Culp answered

Nathan Young

Jeroen Willems answered

Hayden Wilkinson

Jeroen Willems answered

Nathan Barnard

Nathan Young answered

Habiba Islam

Jeroen Willems answered

Elias @reconfigurthing

Sinclair Chen answered

Dony

Jeroen Willems answered

GPT-3

Jeroen Willems answered

William MacAskill

Tom Shlomi answered

Tom Shlomi answered

Tom Shlomi answered

Tom Shlomi answered

Daniel Eth

Tom Shlomi answered

Tom Shlomi answered

Tom Shlomi answered

Miranda Zhang

Tom Shlomi answered

Evie Cottrell

Tom Shlomi answered

Aaron Bergman

Daniel Filan answered

Ben Garfinkel

### Play-money betting

Mana (M$) is the play-money used by our platform to keep track of your bets. It's completely free for you and your friends to get started!

General Comments

I’m about to alter this market to make the resolution criteria better. I think that’s fine because i know most of those with money in the market. tell me if you think that’s unfair and i’ll resolve ambiguously and reset

0

### Play-money betting

Mana (M$) is the play-money used by our platform to keep track of your bets. It's completely free for you and your friends to get started!

A trader bought M$20 of from 0.1% to 0.8%

Kirsten (@...rsten3531)

19 hours ago

A trader bought M$1 of at 0.0%

Nathan Young

21 hours ago

A trader bought M$1 of at 13%

Sentient Lightbulb

a day ago

A trader bought M$1,000 of from 55% to 68%

Frances Lorenz

a day ago

A trader bought M$500 of from 0.0% to 18%

Sentient Lightbulb

2 days ago

A trader bought M$10 of from 0.1% to 0.5%

Alex Lawsen

2 days ago

A trader sold M$19 of from 2% to 1.2%

Julian Haz...ces Lorenz

2 days ago

A trader bought M$20 of from 66% to 67%

Frances Lorenz

2 days ago

A trader bought M$20 of from 18% to 19%

Julian Hazell

2 days ago

A trader bought M$20 of from 1.2% to 2%

Julian Haz...ces Lorenz

2 days ago

A trader bought M$4 of from 0.1% to 0.3%

Dustin Moskovitz

2 days ago

A trader bought M$3 of from 0.0% to 0.1%

Dustin Moskovitz

2 days ago

A trader bought M$25 of from 18% to 19%

Julian Hazell

2 days ago

A trader bought M$30 of from 68% to 69%

Frances Lorenz

2 days ago

A trader sold M$57 of from 4% to 1.3%

Julian Haz...ces Lorenz

2 days ago

A trader bought M$25 of at 17%

Julian Hazell

2 days ago

A trader bought M$5 of from 0.3% to 0.5%

Linchuan Zhang

3 days ago

A trader bought M$20 of at 67%

Frances Lorenz

3 days ago

A trader sold M$102 of from 20% to 17%

Julian Hazell

3 days ago

A trader bought M$1 of from 0.2% to 0.3%

Linchuan Zhang

3 days ago

A trader bought M$50 of from 19% to 20%

Julian Hazell

3 days ago

A trader bought M$40 of from 65% to 66%

Frances Lorenz

3 days ago

A trader bought M$5 of from 0.0% to 0.2%

Linchuan Zhang

3 days ago

A trader bought M$10 of from 0.0% to 0.4%

Paul Crowley

3 days ago

A trader bought M$5 of from 0.0% to 0.2%

Tom Lieberum

3 days ago

A trader bought M$50 of from 65% to 66%

Frances Lorenz

3 days ago

A trader bought M$100 of from 16% to 20%

Julian Hazell

4 days ago

A trader sold M$20 of from 17% to 16%

Julian Hazell

4 days ago

A trader sold M$20 of at 67%

Frances Lorenz

4 days ago

A trader bought M$20 of at 67%

Frances Lorenz

4 days ago

A trader bought M$20 of from 16% to 17%

Julian Hazell

4 days ago

A trader bought M$60 of from 1.4% to 4%

Julian Haz...ces Lorenz

4 days ago

A trader bought M$50 of from 14% to 16%

Julian Hazell

4 days ago

A trader bought M$15 of at 14%

Julian Hazell

4 days ago

A trader bought M$15 of from 13% to 14%

Julian Hazell

4 days ago

A trader bought M$1 of at 0.2%

Chana Messinger

4 days ago

A trader bought M$50 of at 72%

Frances Lorenz

4 days ago

A trader bought M$1 of at 0.0%

@sympatheticopp

4 days ago

A trader bought M$1 of at 0.0%

@sudan_shoe

4 days ago

A trader bought M$1 of at 0.0%

@JacquesThibs

4 days ago

A trader bought M$1 of at 0.0%

Daniel Eth

4 days ago

A trader bought M$1 of at 0.0%

@_mvdm

4 days ago

A trader bought M$1 of at 0.0%

@_revoluzia_

4 days ago

A trader bought M$1 of at 0.0%

Miranda Zhang

4 days ago

A trader bought M$1 of at 0.0%

Evie Cottrell

4 days ago

A trader bought M$1 of at 0.0%

Aaron Bergman

4 days ago

A trader bought M$100 of from 9% to 13%

Julian Hazell

5 days ago

A trader bought M$100 of from 5% to 9%

Julian Hazell

5 days ago

A trader bought M$100 of from 78% to 79%

Frances Lorenz

6 days ago

A trader bought M$500 of from 71% to 78%

Frances Lorenz

6 days ago

A trader bought M$100 of from 0.0% to 6%

Rob Wiblin

6 days ago

A trader bought M$100 of from 74% to 76%

Frances Lorenz

6 days ago

A trader bought M$300 of from 69% to 74%

Frances Lorenz

6 days ago

A trader bought M$50 of from 68% to 69%

Frances Lorenz

7 days ago

A trader bought M$1 of from 0.3% to 0.4%

Max Alexander

7 days ago

A trader bought M$10 of from 67% to 68%

Frances Lorenz

7 days ago

A trader bought M$10 of from 8% to 9%

Julian Hazell

7 days ago

A trader bought M$5 of from 0.0% to 0.4%

stephen clare

7 days ago

A trader bought M$10 of from 0.3% to 1.0%

Rafael Ruiz

7 days ago

A trader bought M$2 of from 0.0% to 0.1%

GPT-3

7 days ago

A trader bought M$5 of from 0.0% to 0.4%

@CineraVerinia

7 days ago

A trader bought M$1 of at 3%

Chris Lloyd

7 days ago

A trader bought M$5 of from 8% to 9%

Julian Hazell

7 days ago

A trader bought M$250 of from 63% to 69%

Frances Lorenz

7 days ago

A trader bought M$3 of from 0.0% to 0.2%

Hayden Wilkinson

7 days ago

A trader bought M$5 of from 0.0% to 0.4%

Michael Plant

7 days ago

A trader bought M$4 of from 0.0% to 0.3%

Jessica Wen

7 days ago

A trader bought M$5 of from 0.0% to 0.4%

Max Alexander

7 days ago

A trader bought M$4 of from 0.0% to 0.3%

@TomTospace

7 days ago

A trader bought M$5 of from 0.0% to 0.4%

@PradyuPrasad

7 days ago

A trader bought M$5 of from 0.0% to 0.4%

@metakuna

7 days ago

A trader bought M$5 of from 0.0% to 0.4%

Rafael Ruiz

7 days ago

A trader bought M$3 of from 0.0% to 0.2%

Nathan Barnard

7 days ago

A trader bought M$7 of from 0.0% to 0.6%

Chana Messinger

7 days ago

A trader bought M$3 of from 0.0% to 0.2%

Elias @rec...figurthing

7 days ago

A trader bought M$5 of from 0.0% to 0.4%

Alex Lawsen

7 days ago

A trader bought M$2 of from 0.0% to 0.2%

William MacAskill

7 days ago

A trader bought M$5 of from 0.0% to 0.4%

@ohwizenedtortle

7 days ago

A trader bought M$50 of from 65% to 66%

Frances Lorenz

7 days ago

A trader bought M$10 of from 64% to 65%

Frances Lorenz

7 days ago

A trader bought M$100 of from 0.0% to 8%

We never f...ond person

7 days ago

A trader bought M$50 of from 0.7% to 5%

Chris Lloyd

7 days ago

A trader sold M$7 of from 13% to 12%

Julian Hazell

7 days ago

A trader sold M$7 of from 14% to 13%

Julian Hazell

7 days ago

A trader sold M$7 of at 14%

Julian Hazell

7 days ago

A trader bought M$100 of from 69% to 72%

Frances Lorenz

8 days ago

A trader bought M$50 of from 1.0% to 5%

Julian Haz...ces Lorenz

8 days ago

A trader bought M$10 of from 0.0% to 0.9%

Henry Sleight

8 days ago

A trader bought M$70 of from 71% to 73%

Frances Lorenz

8 days ago

A trader bought M$50 of from 13% to 17%

Julian Hazell

8 days ago

A trader bought M$5 of from 74% to 75%

Frances Lorenz

8 days ago

A trader bought M$8 of at 74%

Frances Lorenz

8 days ago

A trader bought M$10 of from 0.0% to 1.0%

Trevor Levin

8 days ago

A trader bought M$10 of from 0.0% to 1.0%

Ollie Base

8 days ago

A trader bought M$30 of from 75% to 76%

Frances Lorenz

8 days ago

A trader bought M$30 of from 74% to 75%

Frances Lorenz

8 days ago

A trader bought M$117 of from 71% to 74%

Frances Lorenz

8 days ago

A trader bought M$15 of from 70% to 71%

Frances Lorenz

8 days ago

A trader sold M$17 of from 18% to 17%

Julian Hazell

8 days ago

A trader sold M$10 of at 69%

Frances Lorenz

8 days ago

A trader bought M$10 of from 0.0% to 1.1%

Chris Lloyd

8 days ago

A trader bought M$33 of from 69% to 70%

Frances Lorenz

8 days ago

A trader bought M$62 of from 67% to 69%

Frances Lorenz

8 days ago

A trader sold M$31 of from 23% to 21%

Julian Hazell

9 days ago

A trader sold M$5 of from 2% to 1.4%

Kirsten (@...rsten3531)

9 days ago

A trader sold M$5 of from 1.8% to 1.2%

Fin Moorhouse

9 days ago

A trader sold M$5 of from 1.1% to 0.5%

Habiba Islam

9 days ago

A trader sold M$5 of from 0.7% to 0.1%

Nathan Young

9 days ago

A trader bought M$50 of from 61% to 63%

Frances Lorenz

9 days ago

A trader bought M$10 of from 60% to 61%

Frances Lorenz

9 days ago

A trader bought M$10 of at 60%

Frances Lorenz

9 days ago

A trader bought M$10 of from 59% to 60%

Frances Lorenz

10 days ago

A trader bought M$10 of from 0.0% to 1.2%

@QualyThe

10 days ago

A trader bought M$5 of at 60%

Frances Lorenz

10 days ago

A trader bought M$10 of at 25%

Julian Hazell

10 days ago

A trader sold M$22 of from 4% to 1.6%

Julian Haz...ces Lorenz

10 days ago

A trader sold M$9 of from 5% to 4%

Julian Haz...ces Lorenz

10 days ago

A trader bought M$10 of from 23% to 24%

Julian Hazell

11 days ago

A trader bought M$10 of from 4% to 5%

Julian Haz...ces Lorenz

12 days ago

A trader bought M$10 of from 22% to 23%

Julian Hazell

12 days ago

A trader bought M$75 of from 56% to 60%

Frances Lorenz

12 days ago

A trader bought M$50 of from 53% to 56%

Frances Lorenz

12 days ago

A trader bought M$5 of at 5%

@TetraspaceWest

12 days ago

A trader bought M$100 of from 15% to 26%

Julian Hazell

12 days ago

A trader bought M$10 of from 61% to 62%

Frances Lorenz

12 days ago

A trader bought M$30 of from 1.4% to 5%

@TetraspaceWest

12 days ago

A trader bought M$20 of from 3% to 6%

Julian Haz...ces Lorenz

12 days ago

A trader bought M$10 of from 0.0% to 1.4%

Stefan Schubert

12 days ago

A trader bought M$10 of from 0.0% to 1.5%

@TetraspaceWest

12 days ago

A trader sold M$52 of from 11% to 4%

Julian Haz...ces Lorenz

12 days ago

A trader bought M$300 of from 40% to 63%

Frances Lorenz

12 days ago

A trader bought M$5 of from 25% to 26%

Julian Hazell

12 days ago

A trader bought M$5 of from 39% to 40%

Frances Lorenz

12 days ago

A trader sold M$5 of from 18% to 17%

Julian Haz...ces Lorenz

12 days ago

A trader bought M$100 of from 9% to 25%

Julian Hazell

12 days ago

A trader bought M$50 of from 13% to 22%

Julian Haz...ces Lorenz

12 days ago

A trader bought M$10 of from 0.3% to 2%

Nathan Young

12 days ago

A trader bought M$10 of from 1.7% to 4%

Habiba Islam

12 days ago

A trader bought M$10 of from 4% to 6%

Fin Moorhouse

12 days ago

A trader bought M$10 of from 5% to 7%

Kirsten (@...rsten3531)

12 days ago

A trader bought M$20 of from 7% to 11%

Julian Hazell

12 days ago

A trader bought M$5 of from 14% to 15%

Julian Haz...ces Lorenz

12 days ago

A trader sold M$92 of from 67% to 60%

Frances Lorenz

13 days ago

A trader bought M$50 of from 2% to 12%

Julian Haz...ces Lorenz

13 days ago

A trader bought M$10 of from 0.0% to 2%

Julian Haz...ces Lorenz

13 days ago

A trader bought M$10 of from 5% to 7%

Julian Hazell

13 days ago

A trader bought M$100 of from 72% to 78%

Frances Lorenz

13 days ago

A trader sold M$18 of from 73% to 72%

Frances Lorenz

13 days ago

A trader sold M$9 of from 74% to 73%

Frances Lorenz

13 days ago

A trader sold M$49 of from 77% to 74%

Frances Lorenz

13 days ago

A trader sold M$395 of from 89% to 77%

Frances Lorenz

13 days ago

A trader bought M$1 of from 0.0% to 0.2%

Nathan Young

13 days ago

A trader bought M$10 of from 0.8% to 2%

Julian Hazell

13 days ago

A trader bought M$400 of from 80% to 90%

Frances Lorenz

13 days ago

A trader bought M$10 of from 79% to 80%

Frances Lorenz

13 days ago

A trader bought M$10 of from 0.0% to 2%

Justin Trudeau

13 days ago

A trader bought M$50 of from 79% to 81%

Frances Lorenz

13 days ago

A trader bought M$50 of from 76% to 79%

Frances Lorenz

13 days ago

A trader bought M$10 of from 0.0% to 3%

Habiba Islam

14 days ago

A trader bought M$10 of from 5% to 8%

Kirsten (@...rsten3531)

14 days ago

A trader bought M$10 of from 3% to 5%

Kirsten (@...rsten3531)

14 days ago

A trader bought M$10 of from 0.0% to 3%

Kirsten (@...rsten3531)

14 days ago

A trader bought M$20 of from 83% to 84%

Frances Lorenz

14 days ago

A trader bought M$10 of from 0.0% to 3%

Dony

15 days ago

A trader bought M$10 of from 0.0% to 3%

Julian Hazell

15 days ago

A trader bought M$320 of from 59% to 88%

Frances Lorenz

15 days ago

A trader bought M$100 of from 20% to 59%

Frances Lorenz

15 days ago

A trader bought M$5 of from 0.0% to 4%

stephen clare

15 days ago

A trader bought M$5 of from 0.0% to 4%

Ben Garfinkel

15 days ago

A trader bought M$20 of from 7% to 21%

Frances Lorenz

15 days ago

A trader bought M$1 of from 0.0% to 0.9%

Nathan Young

15 days ago

A trader bought M$100 of from 13% to 73%

Fin Moorhouse

15 days ago

A trader bought M$5 of from 16% to 23%

Frances Lorenz

15 days ago

A trader bought M$10 of from 0.0% to 16%

Frances Lorenz

15 days ago

A trader bought M$10 of from 0.0% to 17%

Fin Moorhouse

15 days ago

### Play-money betting

Mana (M$) is the play-money used by our platform to keep track of your bets. It's completely free for you and your friends to get started!