i think some of my philosophy here is that "this sort of shenanigan seems actively out of character" is actually stronger counterevidence than "this person isn't highly integrated into our social group"

this is why mr fnord would actually surprise me substantially less than celene or sercy or melody, though my surprise emotion doesn't match perfectly to probabilities

...not that this general class of thing is very out of character for celene i just don't think she's nearly this good an actor

if it's unknown, does this resolve to Other at the end of the year? or something else? like basically if that person stopped posting today and nothing was ever known about it for example

@Bayesian ...good question. i'm not sure what to do in such a case?

i would be kind of annoyed at QQ though

N/A for disappearance/unknown at resolution?

@Lun oh i thought N/A was removed or something like that. yeah, N/A feels correct to me, but also if they're still active and it's unknown then maybe extend resolution date

@April oh no

@Lun celene pointed out the possibility and yeah he vaguely seems like a better candidate than many tbh

...he ran a memecoin during the girlcoin arc, didn't he

(if it's a collaboration of multiple people i'm not sure if i'll do percentages based on vague impression of how much they contributed or if i'll split evenly or what, do people want to state preferences ahead of time?)

@April I would do percentages based on contributions if confident, split evenly if unclear

None of the suggested candidates have "Milady avatar vibes" tbh

@cherrvak you pick a milady avatar for your alt because you're basing it off torrential

I BELIEVE IT IS ELIEZER YUDOWSKY

@FioRosebloom Okay

Are you upset about it? I want to know how likely it is to be a friend messing with you

@MingCat No this is fucking hilarious (and I think predictably so?)

@April Are you pretty confident Celene wouldn't do something like this? Generally my prior on elaborate bits with a very specific target audience being done by someone close to someone in that target audience is pretty high, higher than my prior that a given friend wouldn't mess with you because it doesn't seem to match their personality

@MingCat I'm not especially confident that she wouldn't try something like this, but she lives with me and I don't think she could've done this bit

@April Sounds like a fun challenge for if she's trying to mess with you, unless you saw a tweet that couldn't possibly be scheduled appear while you were in the room with her or something!

@MingCat I'd be legitimately very impressed, but it's not totally out of the question.

@April wait why couldn't i have

@Celene just like vibes impression I feel like there's some part you couldn't do

@April as my good friend qorrenqial would say uhhhhhhhhh

i don't have a good quote for this one

@Celene

@MingCat yes?