When Manifold have implemented loans will James say they need an alternate question approval process which allows users to check/improve each others' long term questions?
11
108
100
resolved Sep 21
Resolved
NO

eg If there is a question over 2 years will users want to be able to get others help them improve resolution criteria etc.

Jul 29, 1:44pm: James has to agree this before the resolution date in this market.

Aug 1, 5:30pm: I had a conversation with James about this topic, I am currently much more confident than him.

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Wow, you guys bid this down all the way to 2%! I guess you are right though.

I think having a way to check your long term questions with others can be helpful. It's definitely hard to get them right initially. And collaboratively editing a question would be really cool!

But I also think that editing the description or even the question itself after the fact (which is now possible and wasn't when this market was created IIRC) is a pretty good way of dealing with new details that come up, or suggestions from traders. It's the agile way, haha.

It's true that some traders could be upset with rules changes, but that just means they shouldn't have bet before that aspect was clarified. If someone does a sufficiently bad job at editing their question, people will stop trading in their markets.

Anyway, I haven't heard of this being a problem so far. It's possible that as time goes on this could become more of an issue (though I don't think that's likely?).

I'm not 100% sure on the resolution timing (if only that were collaboratively edited to be made precise!!), but the way I interpret it is this could resolve NO now because loans have been implemented and I haven't said we need an alternate question approval process. Cheers.

predicted YES

@JamesGrugett So while I will likely resolve no, I'd like to push back briefly. The ability to edit not just the resolution criteria (I can't remember if that was allowed when we talked) but also the question itself (which wasn't) is a big deal. Regardless of how this question literally resolves, the spirit of the discussion (as I recall it) was that there should be a way for users to give feedback on questions in a way that can change change them. I'm not gonna say that's happend, but it's like 20% happened.

predicted YES

@NathanpmYoung Eg in a perfect world I think I'd resolve this at say 15%. But in this one I think that will annoy everyone.

predicted NO

@NathanpmYoung Yeah I would think anything not resolved NO would be a mis-resolution imo.

My two cents: The question says "alternate approval process" for markets with loans. We have one editing capability for all questions, it isn't an approval process, and it has absolutely nothing to do with loans.

My opinion since the beginning on this market was that drafting/revision features should be thought of completely independently of loans. I asked previously for clarification on whether it had to relate to loans to resolve YES - my reading of the question (which says "alternate") was that it did.

predicted YES
If they implement this after loans I intend to resolve yes.
predicted NO
@NathanYoung Within what timeframe would count as yes? And does it have to be specific to markets with loans?
sold Ṁ92 of NO

@NathanpmYoung Loans are now implemented, so I think this resolves YES?

predicted NO

@NathanpmYoung Sorry, resolves NO.

predicted NO

@NathanpmYoung Never mind, I can't read.

I definitely think there is a place for community-resolving markets, don't know how that interacts with loans
predicted NO
@JoyVoid Yeah exactly. I don't see any reason to require a higher bar for markets with loans - in my mind, the loans v2 feature is simply a way to make leaving money locked up in a market for a long time less capital-inefficient.
@jack hmm do you think loans are necessary if manifold gets rid of fees?
predicted NO
@JoyVoid Absolutely yes, they are completely independent issues. The issue loans solve is the opportunity cost of putting your money in a market for a long time. If you put M$100 in a market with the expectation of a M$10 profit, and it takes 1 year for that to pay out, your opportunity cost is locking up that M$100 for a year, which could also have gone into 52 bets of a week each. Loans reduce the opportunity cost by reducing the amount of capital you have to lock up over time.
bought Ṁ50 of NO
We can edit questions now. Can also N/A then and try again.
predicted NO
Also can ask for advice in a group or on Discord.
predicted YES
@MartinRandall But you can't do that as part of the question generation process. There isn't a way you can *draft*
predicted NO
@NathanYoung Sure, I'd welcome the ability to make a draft market. Perhaps it would allow only the market creator to bet, so I could set initial probability and free responses. I wouldn't call that a "question approval process" myself.
predicted YES
@MartinRandall neither would i . i mean others can suggest edits on title or resolution criteria
bought Ṁ50 of NO
Seems very much unnecessary.
bought Ṁ30 of NO
There's value in collaborating to improve questions, but I don't really see much relation to loans. Was there a specific motivation for the question?
predicted YES
@jack we had a conversation about it
predicted NO
@NathanYoung Can you explain why you think this is a good idea?