In Jan 2028, will non-profit decision making commonly use forecasting processes? [Resolves to Poll]
In Jan 2028, will non-profit decision making commonly use forecasting processes? [Resolves to Poll]
6
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10%
chance
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1W
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Will there be more yesses or Nos in the poll?
Poll text
Are forecasting processes eg scoring forecasts, commonly used in non-profit decision making?
Options:
Yes
No
I don't know
Question poorly framed
If the answers are more than 75% I don't know + question poorly framed it resolves n/a.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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