This claim got a lot of traction in the media so I though I'd nip it in the bud/confirm it.
Still somewhat provisional:
Were most the top team in FTX/Alameda in a relationship with one another at the same time. Not sets of couples but one contiguous relationship.
All but one of SBF, Caroline, Gary wag, Nissad involved at the same time, at any time in the last 2 years. For a period of at least 6 months.
Also feel like this seems like a sorta sketchy market. I aspire to the rule that if I wouldn't want to do this to my friends, I wouldn't want to do this to strangers or famous people either. This just ain't none of our business. : P
@EmrikGarden seems like a reasonable rule, but I'm not sure it seems so bad to me to speculate about who is dating whom when it isn't especially secret (which I have no reason to think it was), and your uncertainty is just from being far away from the action. I take this market to be more about whether the media is just wildly misrepresenting what happened, more than e.g. trying to figure out personal romantic secrets.
I get that its not being reported thoroughly in financial media, but every other thinkpiece on SBF makes it pretty clear that he is, in fact, in a polycule.
I've traded on this market, but, FWIW, have come to think that it's kind of gross. It doesn't seem very helpful for understanding the FTX crisis and encourages a trade in gossip and salacious info. Wanted to voice that in case others feel similarly.
Or maybe we should get this market to a good place, then resolve it ambiguously and rewrite.
@NathanpmYoung Looks like the resolution is a function of both the relationship status of FTX people and your definition of polycule, which may get updated in the meantime. Since the question included "will I think...", this seems fair to me. And in fact factored into my position.
Comment section, what is a polycule?
Also I know I've messed with the description feel free to complain and I'll give you some mana if you traded before I did.
My reading of the recent clarifications on this market is “at any one point in the last 2 years there was a single poly relationship in ftx leadership (since only 3 of 4 people are needed).” Relative to how the question was originally framed, this seems like a very conservative interpretation of there being “an FTX leadership polycule”.
What about including more people in "FTX/Alameda leadership" or requiring that poly relationships occurred for like 50% of the last couple years?
Yes, is that bad do you think?
@NathanpmYoung Currently seems alright. (I bought in to 'no' thinking you in expectation meant something larger—e.g. my impression reading Twitter was that the posited polycule was ten-personed, but I'd have expected 'yes' on polycule if like half of them were romantically involved or something—but I took my chances given the ambiguity and my impatience to bet.)
@NathanpmYoung I think the current one is reasonable, just not what I expected. What I expected was more like, 'were at least five of the leadership of FTX, including SBF and Caroline, dating one another overlappingly for a month in the past year (i.e. they don't all have to be dating at once, but they have to be in a connected component treating time as a dimension and at any one time for the duration, one of them has to be dating more than one person)'
@NathanpmYoung I think mine is probably better as 'what did people expect this to mean before clarification?' (weakly, based on also sounds like mafiga had a similar expectation to me), but given that it has been clarified as it is for a while, probably people betting recently expect what it currently is, and that is also a natural interpretation (being just the usual meaning of 'polycule' I think). I probably favor leaving it as is, but partly because I don't want to make a bunch of money by convincing you to change it in a favorable to me direction.
@KatjaGrace It is! And I got to thinking about how one's calibratedness generalises across various levels of time spent thinking about a question. It seems likely that you can have well-calibrated early intuitions, but be really miscalibrated on something you've spent a week thinking about, and vice versa. And I'm not sure it's obvious that one imbalance is better than the other.
Some people I trust say that there was. Though I guess if nothing else comes out that may decay over time. Feel free to convince me here.
A 30 year old crypto billionare wants to give his fortune away
He did it! 🎉
Does the graph need to be complete or just have a single connected component?