Oh man, 15% really seems too high given that we still have no evidence besides those early media reports, but OK

• The market appears to be abandoned. The creator hasn’t been active on the site for 2 weeks or is active but hasn’t responded to requests for resolution for 2 days.

Resolving N/A on the basis of these community guidelines. @NathanpmYoung please feel free to return and re-resolve!

@EvanDaniel Gosh that’s so annoying. Nathan is active on Discord, using his mod powers, and creating new markets but just ignores those that are awaiting resolution. Come on, Nathan, we’ve been over this already.

@NicoDelon I am in part hoping that he notices the notification from this!

I will leave his other markets to some other mod to make decisions about; I don't think going on a resolving spree there is necessarily the most useful thing for me to do.

@EvanDaniel Unresolved while we discuss this further. Not sure when folks should expect a mod resolution at this point.

The question originally closed on 2023-11-12, despite it now showing the unresolve date as the close date, for reference.

@EvanDaniel I had a substantial unrealized profit in this market, which is now cancelled, even though you unresolved it (unresolving does not seem to re-invest in this market—Manifold doesn't display any current investment or unrealized profit)

Basically it seems that the cancellation cost me M1000 or so, I'm not sure how much my unrealized profit on this market actually was

@JonasVollmer I’m still seeing your positions in the order book. Are you sure your investment has been canceled?

@NicoDelon I was wrong—I didn't realize that Manifold confusingly hides the "Payout / Spent / Expected Value / Profit" section for all closed markets, so it looks like you didn't invest anything.

@JonasVollmer Oh right, I actually had not really noticed either.

@NicoDelon I have 550 markets. Notifications and tags get lost extremely quickly. If you wish to bring something to my attention. Messages are much more effective.

@NathanpmYoung This sounds like a reason to have fewer markets not to ignore notifications, but I understand the struggle. Life is complicated.

Can this resolve?

@NathanpmYoung

(If your credence is higher than 5%, I'd love to debate you a bit more on that)

So, what do you think?

There is a good chance I am going to resolve this ambiguously. I guess I think I would no longer have made this market.

Happy to hear views:

https://twitter.com/NathanpmYoung/status/1613328065098305537?s=20&t=fl6HNpbjnrsRwvv9bbEBIA

@NathanpmYoung Can you say whether you will resolve this market ambiguously or no? Given that you're by far the largest YES holder, I'm a little worried about incentives for correct resolutions here.

@JonasVollmer I don't really know what's right.

@NathanpmYoung I think you should either resolve ambiguously within the next 1-2 weeks, or commit not to resolve ambiguously. Otherwise I'm worried that whether you will resolve ambiguously or not will depend on whether you will think there was a leadership polycule.
(If you commit not to resolve ambiguously, I would place further trades—but right now I'm not willing to bet at my true probability because of the risk of ambiguous resolution.)

My personal take is that I might not have created this market, but now that it exists, it seems fine to keep.

@JonasVollmer I will not resolve ambiguously

Would people prefer this definition?

"were at least five of the leadership of FTX, including SBF and Caroline, dating one another overlappingly for a month in the past year (i.e. they don't all have to be dating at once, but they have to be in a connected component treating time as a dimension and at any one time for the duration, one of them has to be dating more than one person)"

@NathanpmYoung Not sure I fully understand your definition but it seems reasonable

Also feel like this seems like a sorta sketchy market. I aspire to the rule that if I wouldn't want to do this to my friends, I wouldn't want to do this to strangers or famous people either. This just ain't none of our business. : P

@EmrikGarden seems like a reasonable rule, but I'm not sure it seems so bad to me to speculate about who is dating whom when it isn't especially secret (which I have no reason to think it was), and your uncertainty is just from being far away from the action. I take this market to be more about whether the media is just wildly misrepresenting what happened, more than e.g. trying to figure out personal romantic secrets.

@KatjaGrace I would tip your comment to signal a positive attitude towards your comment, but I'm broke, so I'm replying instead ;;