In a years time, will I think there was an FTX leadership polycule?
31%
chance

This claim got a lot of traction in the media so I though I'd nip it in the bud/confirm it.

Still somewhat provisional:

  • Were most the top team in FTX/Alameda in a relationship with one another at the same time. Not sets of couples but one contiguous relationship.

  • All but one of SBF, Caroline, Gary wag, Nissad involved at the same time, at any time in the last 2 years. For a period of at least 6 months.

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EmrikGarden avatar

Also feel like this seems like a sorta sketchy market. I aspire to the rule that if I wouldn't want to do this to my friends, I wouldn't want to do this to strangers or famous people either. This just ain't none of our business. : P

KatjaGrace avatar
Katja Grace
is predicting NO at 30%

@EmrikGarden seems like a reasonable rule, but I'm not sure it seems so bad to me to speculate about who is dating whom when it isn't especially secret (which I have no reason to think it was), and your uncertainty is just from being far away from the action. I take this market to be more about whether the media is just wildly misrepresenting what happened, more than e.g. trying to figure out personal romantic secrets.

EmrikGarden avatar

@KatjaGrace I would tip your comment to signal a positive attitude towards your comment, but I'm broke, so I'm replying instead ;;

thadthechad avatar
Bob
is predicting YES at 47%

I get that its not being reported thoroughly in financial media, but every other thinkpiece on SBF makes it pretty clear that he is, in fact, in a polycule.

StephenClare avatar
Stephen Clare
is predicting NO at 54%

I've traded on this market, but, FWIW, have come to think that it's kind of gross. It doesn't seem very helpful for understanding the FTX crisis and encourages a trade in gossip and salacious info. Wanted to voice that in case others feel similarly.

NathanpmYoung avatar
Nathan Young
is predicting YES at 54%

@StephenClare I sort of feel the opposite. When I wrote it, I felt like this story was getting shared because It seemed salacious. But now that it seems like it's true, I am not gonna say otherwise.

NathanpmYoung avatar
Nathan Young
is predicting YES at 54%

Or maybe we should get this market to a good place, then resolve it ambiguously and rewrite.

BetsByAnon avatar
Bets By Anon
is predicting NO at 52%

@NathanpmYoung Looks like the resolution is a function of both the relationship status of FTX people and your definition of polycule, which may get updated in the meantime. Since the question included "will I think...", this seems fair to me. And in fact factored into my position.

NathanpmYoung avatar
Nathan Young
is predicting YES at 54%

Comment section, what is a polycule?

Also I know I've messed with the description feel free to complain and I'll give you some mana if you traded before I did.

mafiga avatar
mafiga
is predicting NO at 51%

My reading of the recent clarifications on this market is “at any one point in the last 2 years there was a single poly relationship in ftx leadership (since only 3 of 4 people are needed).” Relative to how the question was originally framed, this seems like a very conservative interpretation of there being “an FTX leadership polycule”.


What about including more people in "FTX/Alameda leadership" or requiring that poly relationships occurred for like 50% of the last couple years?

NathanpmYoung avatar
Nathan Young
is predicting YES at 49%

@mafiga I want to know if it's fair to say there was a polycule in the FTX leadership

NathanpmYoung avatar
Nathan Young
is predicting YES at 53%

@NathanpmYoung How about nwo?

KatjaGrace avatar
Katja Grace
is predicting NO at 53%

@NathanpmYoung did you change it?

NathanpmYoung avatar
Nathan Young
is predicting YES at 54%

Yes, is that bad do you think?

KatjaGrace avatar
Katja Grace
is predicting NO at 53%

@NathanpmYoung Currently seems alright. (I bought in to 'no' thinking you in expectation meant something larger—e.g. my impression reading Twitter was that the posited polycule was ten-personed, but I'd have expected 'yes' on polycule if like half of them were romantically involved or something—but I took my chances given the ambiguity and my impatience to bet.)

NathanpmYoung avatar
Nathan Young
is predicting YES at 54%

@KatjaGrace What do you think a reasonable definition of an FTX leadership polycule is?

KatjaGrace avatar
Katja Grace
is predicting NO at 54%

@NathanpmYoung I think the current one is reasonable, just not what I expected. What I expected was more like, 'were at least five of the leadership of FTX, including SBF and Caroline, dating one another overlappingly for a month in the past year (i.e. they don't all have to be dating at once, but they have to be in a connected component treating time as a dimension and at any one time for the duration, one of them has to be dating more than one person)'

NathanpmYoung avatar
Nathan Young
is predicting YES at 54%

@KatjaGrace Do you think that's better than mine?

KatjaGrace avatar
Katja Grace
is predicting NO at 54%

@NathanpmYoung I think mine is probably better as 'what did people expect this to mean before clarification?' (weakly, based on also sounds like mafiga had a similar expectation to me), but given that it has been clarified as it is for a while, probably people betting recently expect what it currently is, and that is also a natural interpretation (being just the usual meaning of 'polycule' I think). I probably favor leaving it as is, but partly because I don't want to make a bunch of money by convincing you to change it in a favorable to me direction.

EmrikGarden avatar

@KatjaGrace "but I took my chances given the ambiguity and my impatience to bet"

How does this person maintain a <3% average miscalibration over a thousand predictions? Boggles the mind.

KatjaGrace avatar
Katja Grace
is predicting NO at 30%

@EmrikGarden lol, yeah I agree with the general sentiment. But as long as you are well-calibrated re how the ambiguity will resolve, is it not better to bet early in ignorance about the question than wait? 😄

EmrikGarden avatar

@KatjaGrace It is! And I got to thinking about how one's calibratedness generalises across various levels of time spent thinking about a question. It seems likely that you can have well-calibrated early intuitions, but be really miscalibrated on something you've spent a week thinking about, and vice versa. And I'm not sure it's obvious that one imbalance is better than the other.

KatjaGrace avatar
Katja Grace
is predicting NO at 60%

At any point ever, or e.g. in recent months?

NathanpmYoung avatar
Nathan Young
is predicting YES at 72%

Some people I trust say that there was. Though I guess if nothing else comes out that may decay over time. Feel free to convince me here.

Gigacasting avatar

Sinclair avatar
Sinclair Chen
is predicting YES at 49%

A 30 year old crypto billionare wants to give his fortune away

He did it! 🎉

EliTyre avatar
Eli Tyre
is predicting YES at 32%

@Sinclair hahahahah

JavierPrieto avatar

Does the graph need to be complete or just have a single connected component?

NathanpmYoung avatar

@JavierPrieto I think the latter but it's a long time since I studied that.

GeorgeVii avatar

What counts as a polycule to you?

ManifoldDream avatar

In a years time, will I think there was an FTX leadership polycule?, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition